ArticleHealth economics2010
Uncertainty and validation of health economic decision models.
Article in Health economics, 2010. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 56 citations in OpenAlex.
- Policy models for preventative interventions in cardiometabolic diseases: a systematic review.BMC health services research · 2025Pooled it
- A Systematic Review of Methodologies Used in Models of the Treatment of Diabetes Mellitus.PharmacoEconomics · 2024Pooled it
- Screening men for abdominal aortic aneurysm: 10 year mortality and cost effectiveness results from the randomised Multicentre Aneurysm Screening Study.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2009Trial
- Precision in Pharmacoeconomics: A Comparative Cost-Utility Analysis of Osimertinib in EGFR-Mutant NSCLC Using Traditional and Pharmacometric Models.Therapeutic innovation & regulatory science · 2026Article
- Model-Based Economic Analyses of Haemophilia from a Societal Perspective: A Scoping Review.PharmacoEconomics - open · 2026Review
- Comparative Analysis of Traditional and Pharmacometric-Based Pharmacoeconomic Modeling in the Cost-Utility Evaluation of Sunitinib Therapy.PharmacoEconomics · 2025Article
- Development and validation of an individual-based state-transition model for the prediction of frailty and frailty-related events.PloS one · 2023Article
- Investigating the cost-effectiveness of three cessation interventions on a national scale using the Economics of Smoking in Pregnancy (ESIP) decision analytical model.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2022Article
- Exploring Structural Uncertainty and Impact of Health State Utility Values on Lifetime Outcomes in Diabetes Economic Simulation Models: Findings from the Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Quality-of-Life Challenge.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2022Article
- How Sensitive is Sensitivity Analysis?: Evaluation of Pharmacoeconomic Submissions in Korea.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2022Article
- A Practical Guide to Modeling and Conducting a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Companion Biomarker Tests for Targeted Therapies Using R: Tutorial Paper.PharmacoEconomics · 2021Article
- An Evaluation of Survival Curve Extrapolation Techniques Using Long-Term Observational Cancer Data.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2019Article
- Discrete Event Simulation for Decision Modeling in Health Care: Lessons from Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2018Article
- Predictive Validation and the Re-Analysis of Cost-Effectiveness: Do We Dare to Tread?PharmacoEconomics · 2017Article
- Extrapolating Survival from Randomized Trials Using External Data: A Review of Methods.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2017Review
- 2. How is the economic assessment of vaccines performed today?Journal of market access & health policy · 2017Review
- Methods to construct a step-by-step beginner's guide to decision analytic cost-effectiveness modeling.ClinicoEconomics and outcomes research : CEOR · 2016Article
- Development and Use of Disease-Specific (Reference) Models for Economic Evaluations of Health Technologies: An Overview of Key Issues and Potential Solutions.PharmacoEconomics · 2015Article
- Exploring structural uncertainty in model-based economic evaluations.PharmacoEconomics · 2015Review
- Calibration of complex models through Bayesian evidence synthesis: a demonstration and tutorial.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2015Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Health economic decision models are based on specific assumptions relating to model structure and parameter estimation. Validation of these models is recommended as an indicator of reliability, but is not commonly reported. Furthermore, models derived from different data and employing different assumptions may produce a variety of results.A Markov model for evaluating the long-term cost-effectiveness of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm is described. Internal, prospective and external validations are carried out using individual participant data from two randomised trials. Validation is assessed in terms of total numbers and timings of key events, and total costs and life-years. Since the initial model validates well only internally, two further models are developed that better fit the prospective and external validation data. All three models are then extrapolated to a life-time horizon, producing cost-effectiveness estimates ranging from pound1600 to pound4200 per life-year gained.Parameter uncertainty is now commonly addressed in health economic decision modelling. However, the derivation of models from different data sources adds another level of uncertainty. This extra uncertainty should be recognised in practical decision-making and, where possible, specifically investigated through independent model validation.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.