ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2009
Forecasting United States mortality using cohort smoking histories.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
36 citing papers in PubMed, 111 citations in OpenAlex.
- Web-Based Antismoking Advertising to Promote Smoking Cessation: A Randomized Controlled Trial.Journal of medical Internet research · 2016Trial
- A randomized controlled trial of cognitive training using a visual speed of processing intervention in middle aged and older adults.PloS one · 2013Trial
- Why the mortality penalty of smoking is rising over time.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Evolution of birth-cohort patterns in lifestyle-associated cancer mortality across high-income countries.International journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- An Overlapping Cohorts Perspective of Lifespan Inequality.Demography · 2025Article
- Overview of Algorithms for Natural Language Processing and Time Series Analyses.Acta neurochirurgica. Supplement · 2022Review
- Future life expectancy in Europe taking into account the impact of smoking, obesity, and alcohol.eLife · 2021Article
- What's my age again? Age categories as interactive kinds.History and philosophy of the life sciences · 2021Article
- Accounting for Smoking in Forecasting Mortality and Life Expectancy.The annals of applied statistics · 2021Article
- ESTIMATING AND FORECASTING THE SMOKING-ATTRIBUTABLE MORTALITY FRACTION FOR BOTH GENDERS JOINTLY IN OVER 60 COUNTRIES.The annals of applied statistics · 2020Article
- America's Declining Well-Being, Health, and Life Expectancy: Not Just a White Problem.American journal of public health · 2018Article
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- Advances in mortality forecasting: introduction.Genus · 2018Article
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- HOW THE U.S. PRISON BOOM HAS CHANGED THE AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE PRISON POPULATION.Criminology : an interdisciplinary journal · 2016Article
- Future healthy life expectancy among older adults in the US: a forecast based on cohort smoking and obesity history.Population health metrics · 2016Article
- Long-term trends in adult mortality for U.S. Blacks and Whites: an examination of period- and cohort-based changes.Demography · 2014Article
- Projecting the effect of changes in smoking and obesity on future life expectancy in the United States.Demography · 2014Article
- Mortality increase in late-middle and early-old age: heterogeneity in death processes as a new explanation.Demography · 2013Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
In this paper, we introduce a recently established relationship between cohort smoking patterns and adult mortality into mortality projections for the United States. In particular, we incorporate a variable representing the intensity of smoking within a cohort into the original Lee-Carter projection model. The introduction of this variable accounts for important anomalies in the recent age/sex pattern of mortality change and enables the use of a common temporal trend of mortality change for the 2 sexes. We project age-specific mortality rates for men and women at ages 50-84 between 2004 and 2034 in the United States. Because of reductions in smoking that have already occurred or can be reliably projected, mortality is projected to decline much faster when smoking is introduced into the model.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.