ArticleCardiovascular journal of Africa
Validation of a model to predict all-cause in-hospital mortality in vascular surgical patients.
Article in Cardiovascular journal of Africa. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Factors associated with mortality when chronic betablocker therapy is withdrawn in the peri-operative period in vascular surgical patients: a matched case-control study.Cardiovascular journal of AfricaArticle
- Risk factors associated with intermediate and long-term mortality following vascular surgery in South African patients.Cardiovascular journal of AfricaArticle
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2 authors.
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Abstract
objectiveTo develop and validate a pre- and postoperative model of all-cause in-hospital mortality in South African vascular surgical patients.
methodsWe carried out a retrospective cohort study. A multivariate analysis using binary logistic regression was conducted on a derivation cohort using clinical, physiological and surgical data. Interaction and colinearity between covariates were investigated. The models were validated using the Homer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.
resultsIndependent predictors of in-hospital mortality in the pre-operative model were: (1) age (per one-year increase) [odds ratio (OR) 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0-1.06), (2) creatinine > 180 micromol.l(-1) (OR 6.43, 95% CI: 3.482-11.86), (3) chronic beta-blocker therapy (OR 2.48, 95% CI: 1.38-4.48), and (4) absence of chronic statin therapy (OR 2.81, 95% CI: 1.15-6.83). Independent predictors of mortality in the postoperative model were: (1) age (per one-year increase) (OR 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02-1.09), (2) creatinine > 180 micromol.l(-1) (OR 5.08, 95% CI: 2.50-10.31), (3) surgery out of hours without statin therapy (OR 8.27, 95% CI: 3.36-20.38), (4) mean daily postoperative heart rate (HR) (OR 1.02, 95% CI: 1.0-1.04), (5) mean daily postoperative HR in the presence of a mean daily systolic blood pressure of less than 100 beats per minute or above 179 mmHg (OR 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.03) and (6) mean daily postoperative HR associated with withdrawal of chronic beta-blockade (OR 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.03). Both models were validated.
conclusionThe pre-operative model may predict the risk of in-hospital mortality associated with vascular surgery. The postoperative model may identify patients whose risk increases as a result of surgical or physiological factors.
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19104726PMC3971617What OpenQuestion holds
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