ArticlePloS one2008
A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic.
Article in PloS one, 2008. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 74 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
74 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Effectiveness of workplace social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission: a systematic review.BMC public health · 2018Pooled it
- Review Article: The Fraction of Influenza Virus Infections That Are Asymptomatic: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2015Pooled it
- The effects of school closures on influenza outbreaks and pandemics: systematic review of simulation studies.PloS one · 2014Pooled it
- Combination strategies for pandemic influenza response - a systematic review of mathematical modeling studies.BMC medicine · 2009Pooled it
- Rapid Evidence Assessment of Mental Health Outcomes of Pandemics for Health Care Workers: Implications for the Covid-19 Pandemic.Frontiers in public healthPooled it
- Infection risk assessment for socially structured population using stochastic microexposure model.Journal of exposure science & environmental epidemiology · 2026Article
- Prolonged School Closure and Pediatric Respiratory Hospitalization: The Silver Lining of the COVID-19 Pandemic.Global pediatric health · 2024Article
- Temporal and Probabilistic Comparisons of Epidemic Interventions.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- Is Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication as Effective as Vaccination for Preventing Virus Diffusion? Measuring the Impacts of Failure in CERC with MERS-CoV Outbreak in South Korea.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2022Article
- Mitigating the SARS-CoV-2 Delta disease burden in Australia by non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinating children: a modelling analysis.BMC medicine · 2022Article
- Effectiveness of social distancing interventions in containing COVID-19 incidence: International evidence using Kalman filter.Economics and human biology · 2022Article
- Modeling indoor-level non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: A pedestrian dynamics-based microscopic simulation approach.Transport policy · 2021Article
- On the management of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.Health policy (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2021Article
- Measuring changes in travel behavior pattern due to COVID-19 in a developing country: A case study of Pakistan.Transport policy · 2021Article
- A modelling analysis of the effectiveness of second wave COVID-19 response strategies in Australia.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- On Ambiguity Reduction and the Role of Decision Analysis during the Pandemic.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Reflecting on prediction strategies for epidemics: Preparedness and public health response.Annals of allergy, asthma & immunology : official publication of the American College of Allergy, Asthma, & Immunology · 2021Review
- Emotional Attitudes of Chinese Citizens on Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Outbreak: Analysis of Social Media Data.JMIR medical informatics · 2021Article
- COVID surveillance robot: Monitoring social distancing constraints in indoor scenarios.PloS one · 2021Article
- Epidemic spread simulation in an area with a high-density crowd using a SEIR-based model.PloS one · 2021Article
14 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundIn the absence of other evidence, modelling has been used extensively to help policy makers plan for a potential future influenza pandemic.
methodWe have constructed an individual based model of a small community in the developed world with detail down to exact household structure obtained from census collection datasets and precise simulation of household demographics, movement within the community and individual contact patterns. We modelled the spread of pandemic influenza in this community and the effect on daily and final attack rates of four social distancing measures: school closure, increased case isolation, workplace non-attendance and community contact reduction. We compared the modelled results of final attack rates in the absence of any interventions and the effect of school closure as a single intervention with other published individual based models of pandemic influenza in the developed world.
resultsWe showed that published individual based models estimate similar final attack rates over a range of values for R(0) in a pandemic where no interventions have been implemented; that multiple social distancing measures applied early and continuously can be very effective in interrupting transmission of the pandemic virus for R(0) values up to 2.5; and that different conclusions reached on the simulated benefit of school closure in published models appear to result from differences in assumptions about the timing and duration of school closure and flow-on effects on other social contacts resulting from school closure.
conclusionModels of the spread and control of pandemic influenza have the potential to assist policy makers with decisions about which control strategies to adopt. However, attention needs to be given by policy makers to the assumptions underpinning both the models and the control strategies examined.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.