ArticleBMC medical research methodology2008
Simple estimators of the intensity of seasonal occurrence.
Article in BMC medical research methodology, 2008. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 46 citations in OpenAlex.
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- A Prospective Cohort Study of Seasonal Variation in Spontaneous Abortion.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2022Article
- Did the 2015 USPSTF Abnormal Blood Glucose Recommendations Change Clinician Attitudes or Behaviors? A Mixed-Method Assessment.Journal of general internal medicine · 2022Article
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- Environmental factors, winter respiratory infections and the seasonal variation in heart failure admissions.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Spatio-Temporal Variation in the Prevalence of Major Mastitis Pathogens Isolated From Bovine Milk Samples Between 2008 and 2017 in Ontario, Canada.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2021Article
- Decreasing Colectomy Rate for Ulcerative Colitis in the United States Between 2007 and 2016: A Time Trend Analysis.Inflammatory bowel diseases · 2020Article
- Seasonal patterns in fecundability in North America and Denmark: a preconception cohort study.Human reproduction (Oxford, England) · 2020Article
- Incidence and seasonality of respiratory viruses causing acute respiratory infections in the Northern United Arab Emirates.Journal of medical virology · 2019Article
- Venous Thromboembolism in Denmark: Seasonality in Occurrence and Mortality.TH open : companion journal to thrombosis and haemostasis · 2019Article
- Excess Deaths Attributable to Influenza-Like Illness in the ESRD Population.Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN · 2019Article
- Impact of New Medications and $4 Generic Programs on Overactive Bladder Treatment Among Older Adults in the United States, 2000-2015.Medical care · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundEdwards's method is a widely used approach for fitting a sine curve to a time-series of monthly frequencies. From this fitted curve, estimates of the seasonal intensity of occurrence (i.e., peak-to-low ratio of the fitted curve) can be generated.
methodsWe discuss various approaches to the estimation of seasonal intensity assuming Edwards's periodic model, including maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), least squares, weighted least squares, and a new closed-form estimator based on a second-order moment statistic and non-transformed data. Through an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study, we compare the finite sample performance characteristics of the estimators discussed in this paper. Finally, all estimators and confidence interval procedures discussed are compared in a re-analysis of data on the seasonality of monocytic leukemia.
resultsWe find that Edwards's estimator is substantially biased, particularly for small numbers of events and very large or small amounts of seasonality. For the common setting of rare events and moderate seasonality, the new estimator proposed in this paper yields less finite sample bias and better mean squared error than either the MLE or weighted least squares. For large studies and strong seasonality, MLE or weighted least squares appears to be the optimal analytic method among those considered.
conclusionEdwards's estimator of the seasonal relative risk can exhibit substantial finite sample bias. The alternative estimators considered in this paper should be preferred.
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