SynthesisInternational journal of technology assessment in health care2008
Progression-free survival as a surrogate endpoint in advanced breast cancer.
Synthesis in International journal of technology assessment in health care, 2008. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Prognostic molecular biomarkers in chordomas: A systematic review and identification of clinically usable biomarker panels.Frontiers in oncology · 2022Pooled it
- Overall Survival of CDK4/6-Inhibitor-Based Treatments in Clinically Relevant Subgroups of Metastatic Breast Cancer: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2020Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Correlation between progression-free survival and overall survival in metastatic breast cancer patients receiving anthracyclines, taxanes, or targeted therapies: a trial-level meta-analysis.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2015Pooled it
- Progression-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in glioblastoma: a literature-based meta-analysis from 91 trials.Neuro-oncology · 2014Pooled it
- Pooled it
- CYP2D6 genotype and tamoxifen response for breast cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.PloS one · 2013Pooled it
- Pyrotinib versus placebo in combination with trastuzumab and docetaxel as first line treatment in patients with HER2 positive metastatic breast cancer (PHILA): randomised, double blind, multicentre, phase 3 trial.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2023Trial
- Leukemia-free survival as a surrogate end point for overall survival in the evaluation of maintenance therapy for patients with acute myeloid leukemia in complete remission.Haematologica · 2011Trial
- Clinicopathological Evaluation of Patients with Hormone Receptor-Positive HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer Progressing on Endocrine Treatment: A Real-World Retrospective Study from a Regional Cancer Center.South Asian journal of cancer · 2025Article
- Estimating the incidence of breast cancer recurrence using administrative data.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2023Article
- Analysis of a Real-World Progression Variable and Related Endpoints for Patients with Five Different Cancer Types.Advances in therapy · 2022Article
- Physicians' Perception of the Evidence in Relation to Primary Endpoints of Clinical Trials on Breast Cancer.Breast care (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Evaluating the evidence behind the surrogate measures included in the FDA's table of surrogate endpoints as supporting approval of cancer drugs.EClinicalMedicine · 2020Article
- A Systematic Review and Recommendation for Reporting of Surrogate Endpoint Evaluation Using Meta-analyses.JNCI cancer spectrum · 2019Review
- Trends in endpoint selection in clinical trials of advanced breast cancer.Journal of cancer research and clinical oncology · 2016Article
- Strength of Validation for Surrogate End Points Used in the US Food and Drug Administration's Approval of Oncology Drugs.Mayo Clinic proceedings · 2016Article
- Bias in progression-free survival analysis due to intermittent assessment of progression.Statistics in medicine · 2015Article
- A Weibull multi-state model for the dependence of progression-free survival and overall survival.Statistics in medicine · 2015Article
- Multitrial Evaluation of Progression-Free Survival as a Surrogate End Point for Overall Survival in First-Line Extensive-Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer.Journal of thoracic oncology : official publication of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesProgression-free survival (PFS) has not been validated as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) for anthracycline (A) and taxane-based (T) chemotherapy in advanced breast cancer (ABC). Using trial-level, meta-analytic approaches, we evaluated PFS as a surrogate endpoint.
methodsA literature review identified randomized, controlled A and T trials for ABC. Progression-based endpoints were classified by prospective definitions. Treatment effects were derived as hazard ratios for PFS (HRPFS) and OS (HROS). Kappa statistic assessed overall agreement. A fixed-effects regression model was used to predict HROS from observed HRPFS. Cross-validation was performed. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were performed for PFS definition, year of last patient recruitment, line of treatment, and constant rate assumption.
resultsSixteen A and fifteen T trials met inclusion criteria, producing seventeen A (n = 4,323) and seventeen T (n = 5,893) trial-arm pairs. Agreement (kappa statistic) between the direction of HROS and HRPFS was 0.71 for A (p = .0029) and 0.75 for T (p = .0028). While HRPFS was a statistically significant predictor of HROS for both A (p = .0019) and T (p = .012), the explained variances were 0.49 (A) and 0.35 (T). In cross-validation, 97 percent of the 95 percent prediction intervals crossed the equivalence line, and the direction of predicted HROS agreed with observed HROS in 82 percent (A) and 76 percent (T). Results were robust in sensitivity and subgroup analyses.
conclusionsThis meta-analysis suggests that the trial-level treatment effect on PFS is significantly associated with the trial-level treatment effect on OS. However, prediction of OS based on PFS is surrounded with uncertainty.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.