ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2008
Mass incarceration can explain population increases in TB and multidrug-resistant TB in European and central Asian countries.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2008. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 76 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
76 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 171 citations in OpenAlex.
- The effectiveness of non-exposure to incarceration in preventing COVID-19 and mitigating associated events: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC public health · 2025Pooled it
- Prisoners co-infected with tuberculosis and HIV: a systematic review.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2016Pooled it
- The impact of economic crises on communicable disease transmission and control: a systematic review of the evidence.PloS one · 2011Pooled it
- Tuberculosis incidence in prisons: a systematic review.PLoS medicine · 2010Pooled it
- Tuberculosis in prisons: an integrated prevention and care cascade for a persistent structural epidemic.Frontiers in public health · 2026Review
- Prevalence and associated factors of tuberculosis/HIV coinfection among people living with HIV in Almaty, Kazakhstan: a cross-sectional study.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Factors associated with survival of tuberculosis patients in Southeast Iran: comparison of stepwise cox regression, survival tree, and random survival forest.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Global perspectives on tuberculosis in prisons and incarceration centers - Risk factors, priority needs, challenges for control and the way forward.IJID regions · 2025Review
- Decarceration and COVID-19 infections in U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention facilities: a simulation modeling study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2025Article
- Effect of CD4 count on Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection rates in people living with HIV: a comparative study in prison and community.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Modeling tuberculosis transmission dynamics in Kazakhstan using SARIMA and SIR models.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Impact and cost-effectiveness of the 6-month BPaLM regimen for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis in Moldova: A mathematical modeling analysis.PLoS medicine · 2024Article
- Global, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence and case detection among incarcerated individuals from 2000 to 2019: a systematic analysis.The Lancet. Public health · 2023Article
- The relative transmission fitness of multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis in a drug resistance hotspot.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Tuberculosis in Prisons: Importance of Considering the Clustering in the Analysis of Cross-Sectional Studies.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Positive rate and risk factors of latent tuberculosis infection among persons living with HIV in Jiangsu Province, China.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2023Article
- COVID-19 and European carcerality: Do national prison policies converge when faced with a pandemic?Punishment & society · 2022Article
- Tuberculosis Notification Trends and Treatment Outcomes in Penitentiary and Civilian Health Care Sectors in the WHO European Region.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Association of Jail Decarceration and Anticontagion Policies With COVID-19 Case Growth Rates in US Counties.JAMA network open · 2021Article
- Prisons as ecological drivers of fitness-compensated multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis.Nature medicine · 2021Article
16 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Several microlevel studies have pinpointed prisons as an important site for tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant TB in European and central Asian countries. To date, no comparative analyses have examined whether rises in incarceration rates can account for puzzling differences in TB trends among overall populations. Using longitudinal TB and cross-sectional multidrug-resistant TB data for 26 eastern European and central Asian countries, we examined whether and to what degree increases in incarceration account for differences in population TB and multidrug-resistant TB burdens. We find that each percentage point increase in incarceration rates relates to an increased TB incidence of 0.34% (population attributable risk, 95% C.I.: 0.10-0.58%, P < 0.01), after controlling for TB infrastructure; HIV prevalence; and several surveillance, economic, demographic, and political indicators. Net increases in incarceration account for a 20.5% increase in TB incidence or nearly three-fifths of the average total increase in TB incidence in the countries studied from 1991 to 2002. Although the number of prisoners is a significant determinant of differences in TB incidence and multidrug-resistant TB prevalence among countries, the rate of prison growth is a larger determinant of these outcomes, and its effect is exacerbated but not confounded by HIV. Differences in incarceration rates are a major determinant of differences in population TB outcomes among eastern European and central Asian countries, and treatment expansion alone does not appear to resolve the effect of mass incarceration on TB incidence.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.