Evidence map›Paper›PMID 18670665›Full record

ArticleBulletin of the World Health Organization2008

Estimating the cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to the European Common Agricultural Policy on dietary saturated fats.

Ffion Lloyd-Williams, Martin O'Flaherty, Modi Mwatsama, Christopher Birt, Robin Ireland, Simon Capewell

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2008. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Prophylactic lidocaine for myocardial infarction.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2015
    Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Trial
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Food and Agriculture Policy in Europe.AIMS public health · 2016
    Article
  12. Review
  13. The food environment of youth baseball.Childhood obesity (Print) · 2014
    Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. The nitrogen cascade from agricultural soils to the sea: modelling nitrogen transfers at regional watershed and global scales.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2013
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Ffion Lloyd-WilliamsDivision of Public Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, England. ffionlw@liv.ac.uk
Martin O'Flaherty
Modi Mwatsama
Christopher Birt
Robin Ireland
Simon Capewell

Funding

Medical Research Council G0500920
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo estimate the burden of cardiovascular disease within 15 European Union countries (before the 2004 enlargement) as a result of excess dietary saturated fats attributable to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).

methodsA spreadsheet model was developed to synthesize data on population, diet, cholesterol levels and mortality rates. A conservative estimate of a reduction in saturated fat consumption of just 2.2 g was chosen, representing 1% of daily energy intake. The fall in serum cholesterol concentration was then calculated, assuming that this 1% reduction in saturated fat consumption was replaced with 0.5% monounsaturated and 0.5% polyunsaturated fats. The resulting reduction in cardiovascular and stroke deaths was then estimated, and a sensitivity analysis conducted.

findingsReducing saturated fat consumption by 1% and increasing monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fat by 0.5% each would lower blood cholesterol levels by approximately 0.06 mmol/l, resulting in approximately 9800 fewer coronary heart disease deaths and 3000 fewer stroke deaths each year.

conclusionThe cardiovascular disease burden attributable to CAP appears substantial. Furthermore, these calculations were conservative estimates, and the true mortality burden may be higher. The analysis contributes to the current wider debate concerning the relationship between CAP, health and chronic disease across Europe, together with recent international developments and commitments to reduce chronic diseases. The reported mortality estimates should be considered in relation to the current CAP and any future reforms.

Indexed as

Diet SurveysAdultAgedAgricultureCardiovascular DiseasesCholesterolDietary FatsDietary Fats, UnsaturatedEnergy IntakeEuropeEuropean UnionFatty AcidsFemaleFood SupplyHumansMaleCholesterolDietary FatsDietary Fats, UnsaturatedFatty Acids

Identifiers

PMID18670665
PMCPMC2647494

What OpenQuestion holds

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Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.