ArticleSexually transmitted infections2008
Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainty in national HIV prevalence estimates.
Article in Sexually transmitted infections, 2008. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 46 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
46 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Analytical methods used in estimating the prevalence of HIV/AIDS from demographic and cross-sectional surveys with missing data: a systematic review.BMC medical research methodology · 2020Pooled it
- Tuberculosis control in South African gold mines: mathematical modeling of a trial of community-wide isoniazid preventive therapy.American journal of epidemiology · 2015Trial
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- Prioritising attributes for tuberculosis preventive treatment regimens: a modelling analysis.BMC medicine · 2022Article
- Engaging with the private healthcare sector for the control of tuberculosis in India: cost and cost-effectiveness.BMJ global health · 2021Article
- Assessment of Strategies and Epidemiological Characteristics of Tuberculosis in Henan Province, China: Observational Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2021Observational
- The potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tuberculosis epidemic a modelling analysis.EClinicalMedicine · 2020Article
- The potential impact of preventive therapy against tuberculosis in the WHO South-East Asian Region: a modelling approach.BMC medicine · 2020Article
- Data-driven modelling and spatial complexity supports heterogeneity-based integrative management for eliminating Simulium neavei-transmitted river blindness.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Assessment of control strategies against Clonorchis sinensis infection based on a multi-group dynamic transmission model.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- The potential deployment of a pan-tuberculosis drug regimen in India: A modelling analysis.PloS one · 2020Article
- Article
- Estimating the immunogenicity of measles-rubella vaccination administered during a mass campaign in Lao People's Democratic Republic using multi-valent seroprevalence data.Scientific reports · 2019Article
- Modelling the impact of effective private provider engagement on tuberculosis control in urban India.Scientific reports · 2019Article
- Undiagnosed HIV infections among gay and bisexual men increasingly contribute to new infections in Australia.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2018Article
- Economic and epidemiologic impact of guidelines for early ART initiation irrespective of CD4 count in Spain.PloS one · 2018Article
- Hyak mortality monitoring system: innovative sampling and estimation methods - proof of concept by simulation.Global health, epidemiology and genomics · 2018Article
- Changing Dynamics of HIV Transmission in Côte d'Ivoire: Modeling Who Acquired and Transmitted Infections and Estimating the Impact of Past HIV Interventions (1976-2015).Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2017Article
- Population-level impact of an accelerated HIV response plan to reach the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target in Côte d'Ivoire: Insights from mathematical modeling.PLoS medicine · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo construct confidence intervals for HIV prevalence in countries with generalised epidemics.
methodsIn the Bayesian melding approach, a sample of country-specific epidemic curves describing HIV prevalence over time is derived based on time series of antenatal clinic prevalence data and general information on the parameters that describe the HIV epidemic. The prevalence trends at antenatal clinics are calibrated to population-based HIV prevalence estimates from national surveys. For countries without population based estimates, a general calibration method is developed. Based on the sample of calibrated epidemic curves, we derive annual 95% confidence intervals for HIV prevalence. The curve that best represents the data at antenatal clinics and population-based surveys, as well as general information about the epidemic, is chosen to represent the best estimates and predictions.
resultsWe present results for urban areas in Haiti and Namibia to illustrate the estimates and confidence intervals that are derived with the methodology.
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