Evidence map›Paper›PMID 18381993›Full record

ArticleAmerican journal of public health2008

Trends in recorded influenza mortality: United States, 1900-2004.

Peter Doshi

Erratum issuedAbstract readHistorical Article
In one paragraph

Article in American journal of public health, 2008. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 32 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
32citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

32 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. The distribution of COVID-19 mortality.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022
    Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Persistent Pandemics.Economics and human biology · 2021
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Seasonal Influenza Epidemics and El Niños.Frontiers in public health · 2015
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

1 author.

Peter DoshiHASTS Program, E51-070, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA. pnd@mit.edu

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesI sought to describe trends in historical influenza mortality data in the United States since 1900 and compare pandemic with nonpandemic influenza seasons.

methodsI compiled a database of monthly influenza-classed death rates from official US mortality tables for the years 1900 to 2004 (1905-1909 excluded), from which I calculated adjusted influenza season (July 1-June 30) mortality rates.

resultsAn overall and substantial decline in influenza-classed mortality was observed during the 20th century, from an average seasonal rate of 10.2 deaths per 100 000 population in the 1940s to 0.44 per 100 000 by the 1990s [corrected] . The 1918-1919 pandemic stands out as an exceptional outlier. The 1957-1958 and 1968-1969 influenza pandemic seasons, by contrast, displayed substantial overlap in both degree of mortality and timing compared with nonpandemic seasons.

conclusionsThe considerable similarity in mortality seen in pandemic and non-pandemic influenza seasons challenges common beliefs about the severity of pandemic influenza. The historical decline in influenza-classed mortality rates suggests that public health and ecological factors may play a role in influenza mortality risk. Nevertheless, the actual number of influenza-attributable deaths remains in doubt.

Indexed as

Disease OutbreaksHistory, 20th CenturyHistory, 21st CenturyHumansInfluenza, HumanMortalityUnited States

Identifiers

PMID18381993
PMCPMC2374803

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.