ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2008
Accuracy of models for the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2008. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 44 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
44 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Challenges to the Application of Spatially Explicit Stochastic Simulation Models for Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control in Endemic Settings: A Systematic Review.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2020Pooled it
- Data-Driven Models of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Dynamics: A Review.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2017Pooled it
- A modelling assessment of the impact of control measures on highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission in poultry in Great Britain.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Epidemiology and economics of foot-and-mouth disease: current understanding and knowledge gaps.Veterinary research · 2025Review
- Modeling target-density-based cull strategies to contain foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks.PeerJ · 2024Article
- The Importance of Livestock Demography and Infrastructure in Driving Foot and Mouth Disease Dynamics.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Modelling livestock infectious disease control policy under differing social perspectives on vaccination behaviour.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Causes of delayed outbreak responses and their impacts on epidemic spread.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
- Parallels, differences and lessons: a comparison of the management of foot-and-mouth disease and COVID-19 using UK 2001/2020 as points of reference.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2020Article
- Latent likelihood ratio tests for assessing spatial kernels in epidemic models.Journal of mathematical biology · 2020Article
- Transmission network reconstruction for foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks incorporating farm-level covariates.PloS one · 2020Article
- The Role of Movement Restrictions in Limiting the Economic Impact of Livestock Infections.Nature sustainability · 2019Article
- Context matters: using reinforcement learning to develop human-readable, state-dependent outbreak response policies.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2019Article
- The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh.PLoS computational biology · 2018Article
- Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks.PLoS computational biology · 2018Article
- Need for speed: An optimized gridding approach for spatially explicit disease simulations.PLoS computational biology · 2018Article
- Assessing the Economic Impact of Vaccine Availability When Controlling Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreaks.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2018Article
- Efficient use of sentinel sites: detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2017Article
- Quantifying the Value of Perfect Information in Emergency Vaccination Campaigns.PLoS computational biology · 2017Article
- Evaluation of Strategies to Control a Potential Outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Sweden.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Since 2001 models of the spread of foot-and-mouth disease, supported by the data from the UK epidemic, have been expounded as some of the best examples of problem-driven epidemic models. These claims are generally based on a comparison between model results and epidemic data at fairly coarse spatio-temporal resolution. Here, we focus on a comparison between model and data at the individual farm level, assessing the potential of the model to predict the infectious status of farms in both the short and long terms. Although the accuracy with which the model predicts farms reporting infection is between 5 and 15%, these low levels are attributable to the expected level of variation between epidemics, and are comparable to the agreement between two independent model simulations. By contrast, while the accuracy of predicting culls is higher (20-30%), this is lower than expected from the comparison between model epidemics. These results generally support the contention that the type of the model used in 2001 was a reliable representation of the epidemic process, but highlight the difficulties of predicting the complex human response, in terms of control strategies to the perceived epidemic risk.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.