ArticlePloS one2008
Mitigation measures for pandemic influenza in Italy: an individual based model considering different scenarios.
Article in PloS one, 2008. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 87 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
87 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 185 citations in OpenAlex.
- Effectiveness of workplace social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission: a systematic review.BMC public health · 2018Pooled it
- Effectiveness of travel restrictions in the rapid containment of human influenza: a systematic review.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2014Pooled it
- The effects of school closures on influenza outbreaks and pandemics: systematic review of simulation studies.PloS one · 2014Pooled it
- A systematic review to identify areas of enhancements of pandemic simulation models for operational use at provincial and local levels.BMC public health · 2012Pooled it
- Combination strategies for pandemic influenza response - a systematic review of mathematical modeling studies.BMC medicine · 2009Pooled it
- How host mobility formulations shape estimates of pathogen dispersal and epidemic risk in non endemic regions.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Understanding human mobility patterns under a public health emergency.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- A novel framework for inferring dynamic infectious disease transmission with graph attention: a COVID-19 case study in Korea.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Evaluating the effect of targeted strategies as control tools for hypervirulent meningococcal C outbreaks: a case study from Tuscany, Italy, 2015 to 2016.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2023Article
- Exploring Public Perception Toward Travel and COVID-19 Preventive Measures: Insights From the Early Stages of Lockdown in India.Transportation research record · 2023Article
- Coupling the Within-Host Process and Between-Host Transmission of COVID-19 Suggests Vaccination and School Closures are Critical.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Is Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication as Effective as Vaccination for Preventing Virus Diffusion? Measuring the Impacts of Failure in CERC with MERS-CoV Outbreak in South Korea.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2022Article
- Flower sharing and pollinator health: a behavioural perspective.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2022Review
- Public Health Regulations and Policies Dealing with Preparedness and Emergency Management: The Experience of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- COVID-19 pandemic spread against countries' non-pharmaceutical interventions responses: a data-mining driven comparative study.BMC public health · 2021Article
- TLQP: Early-stage transportation lock-down and quarantine problem.Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies · 2021Article
- Canada's response to international travel during COVID-19 pandemic - a media analysis.BMC public health · 2021Article
- Article
- Developing Pandemic Prevention and Control by ANP-QFD Approach: A Case Study on Urban Furniture Design in China Communities.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Deriving fine-scale models of human mobility from aggregated origin-destination flow data.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
27 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundIndividual-based models can provide the most reliable estimates of the spread of infectious diseases. In the present study, we evaluated the diffusion of pandemic influenza in Italy and the impact of various control measures, coupling a global SEIR model for importation of cases with an individual based model (IBM) describing the Italian epidemic. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL
findingsWe co-located the Italian population (57 million inhabitants) to households, schools and workplaces and we assigned travel destinations to match the 2001 census data. We considered different R(0 )values (1.4; 1.7; 2), evaluating the impact of control measures (vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis -AVP-, international air travel restrictions and increased social distancing). The administration of two vaccine doses was considered, assuming that first dose would be administered 1-6 months after the first world case, and different values for vaccine effectiveness (VE). With no interventions, importation would occur 37-77 days after the first world case. Air travel restrictions would delay the importation of the pandemic by 7-37 days. With an R(0 )of 1.4 or 1.7, the use of combined measures would reduce clinical attack rates (AR) from 21-31% to 0.3-4%. Assuming an R(0) of 2, the AR would decrease from 38% to 8%, yet only if vaccination were started within 2 months of the first world case, in combination with a 90% reduction in international air traffic, closure of schools/workplaces for 4 weeks and AVP of household and school/work close contacts of clinical cases. Varying VE would not substantially affect the results.
conclusionsThis IBM, which is based on country-specific demographic data, could be suitable for the real-time evaluation of measures to be undertaken in the event of the emergence of a new pandemic influenza virus. All preventive measures considered should be implemented to mitigate the pandemic.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.