ArticleEpidemiology and infection2008
Scenarios of diffusion and control of an influenza pandemic in Italy.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2008. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Effectiveness of workplace social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission: a systematic review.BMC public health · 2018Pooled it
- The effects of school closures on influenza outbreaks and pandemics: systematic review of simulation studies.PloS one · 2014Pooled it
- Combination strategies for pandemic influenza response - a systematic review of mathematical modeling studies.BMC medicine · 2009Pooled it
- Assessment of 2021/22 influenza epidemic scenarios in Italy during SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.PloS one · 2023Article
- Modeling indoor-level non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: A pedestrian dynamics-based microscopic simulation approach.Transport policy · 2021Article
- Article
- Influenza in workplaces: transmission, workers' adherence to sick leave advice and European sick leave recommendations.European journal of public health · 2016Review
- Design of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies for pandemic influenza outbreaks.BMC public health · 2014Article
- Understanding the dynamics of seasonal influenza in Italy: incidence, transmissibility and population susceptibility in a 9-year period.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2013Article
- Evaluating temporal factors in combined interventions of workforce shift and school closure for mitigating the spread of influenza.PloS one · 2012Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
To predict the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus in Italy and the impact of control measures, we developed a susceptible-exposed, but not yet infectious-infectious-recovered, and no longer susceptible (SEIR) deterministic model with a stochastic simulation component. We modelled the impact of control measures such as vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis and social distancing measures. In the absence of control measures, the epidemic peak would be reached about 4 months after the importation of the first cases in Italy, and the epidemic would last about 7 months. When combined, the control measures would reduce the cumulative attack rate to about 4.2%, at best, although this would require an extremely high number of treated individuals. In accordance with international findings, our results highlight the need to respond to a pandemic with a combination of control measures.
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