ArticlePloS one2007
A biological model for influenza transmission: pandemic planning implications of asymptomatic infection and immunity.
Article in PloS one, 2007. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
43 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 99 citations in OpenAlex.
- Heterogeneous and Dynamic Prevalence of Asymptomatic Influenza Virus Infections.Emerging infectious diseases · 2016Pooled it
- A bayesian approach for parameterizing and predicting plasmid conjugation dynamics.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens of public health concern: a review of the evidence.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Review
- Epidemiological and health economic implications of symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens: A mathematical modelling investigation.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- How immune dynamics shape multi-season epidemics: a continuous-discrete model in one dimensional antigenic space.Journal of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Improving estimates of waning immunity rates in stochastic SIRS models with a hierarchical framework.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- How effective were Australian Quarantine Stations in mitigating transmission aboard ships during the influenza pandemic of 1918-19?PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Uncertainty and error in SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological parameters inferred from population-level epidemic models.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- Multimeric structure enables the acceleration of KaiB-KaiC complex formation induced by ADP/ATP exchange inhibition.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- The role of models as a decision-making support tool rather than a guiding light in managing the COVID-19 pandemic.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- A statistical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 infections and their case detection ratio in 2020.Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift · 2021Article
- Modeling the role of asymptomatics in infection spread with application to SARS-CoV-2.PloS one · 2020Article
- Characterising seasonal influenza epidemiology using primary care surveillance data.PLoS computational biology · 2018Article
- Interferon-α inhibits cell migration and invasion and induces the expression of antiviral proteins in Huh-7 cells transfected with hepatitis B virus X gene-expressing lentivirus.Experimental and therapeutic medicine · 2017Article
- Article
- Forecasting influenza outbreak dynamics in Melbourne from Internet search query surveillance data.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2016Article
- Interval Between Infections and Viral Hierarchy Are Determinants of Viral Interference Following Influenza Virus Infection in a Ferret Model.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2015Article
- Differential Immune Profiles in Two Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus Waves at Pandemic Epicenter.Archives of medical research · 2015Article
- Impact of School Cycles and Environmental Forcing on the Timing of Pandemic Influenza Activity in Mexican States, May-December 2009.PLoS computational biology · 2015Article
- Modelling the epidemic spread of an H1N1 influenza outbreak in a rural university town.Epidemiology and infection · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe clinical attack rate of influenza is influenced by prior immunity and mixing patterns in the host population, and also by the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic. This complexity makes it difficult to directly estimate R(0) from the attack rate, contributing to uncertainty in epidemiological models to guide pandemic planning. We have modelled multiple wave outbreaks of influenza from different populations to allow for changing immunity and asymptomatic infection and to make inferences about R(0). DATA AND
methodsOn the island of Tristan da Cunha (TdC), 96% of residents reported illness during an H3N2 outbreak in 1971, compared with only 25% of RAF personnel in military camps during the 1918 H1N1 pandemic. Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) methods were used to estimate model parameter distributions.
findingsWe estimated that most islanders on TdC were non-immune (susceptible) before the first wave, and that almost all exposures of susceptible persons caused symptoms. The median R(0) of 6.4 (95% credibility interval 3.7-10.7) implied that most islanders were exposed twice, although only a minority became ill in the second wave because of temporary protection following the first wave. In contrast, only 51% of RAF personnel were susceptible before the first wave, and only 38% of exposed susceptibles reported symptoms. R(0) in this population was also lower [2.9 (2.3-4.3)], suggesting reduced viral transmission in a partially immune population.
interpretationOur model implies that the RAF population was partially protected before the summer pandemic wave of 1918, arguably because of prior exposure to interpandemic influenza. Without such protection, each symptomatic case of influenza would transmit to between 2 and 10 new cases, with incidence initially doubling every 1-2 days. Containment of a novel virus could be more difficult than hitherto supposed.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.