ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2008
Noise, nonlinearity and seasonality: the epidemics of whooping cough revisited.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2008. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers.
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Who cites it
32 citing papers in PubMed.
- Noisy periodicity in tropical respiratory disease dynamics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Transmission Dynamics and Parameters for Pertussis during School-Based Outbreak, South Korea, 2024.Emerging infectious diseases · 2025Article
- A generalized ODE susceptible-infectious-susceptible compartmental model with potentially periodic behavior.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Dissecting recurrent waves of pertussis across the boroughs of London.PLoS computational biology · 2022Review
- A stochastic model explains the periodicity phenomenon of influenza on network.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Effects of stochasticity on the length and behaviour of ecological transients.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
- Quantifying the consequences of measles-induced immune modulation for whooping cough epidemiology.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2019Article
- A Network-Based Compartmental Model For The Spread Of Whooping Cough In Nebraska.AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science proceedings. AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science · 2019Article
- Estimating seasonal variation in Australian pertussis notifications from 1991 to 2016: evidence of spring to summer peaks.Epidemiology and infection · 2019Article
- Estimating the distance to an epidemic threshold.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2018Article
- Evidence of cryptic incidence in childhood diseases.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2017Article
- Pattern transitions in spatial epidemics: Mechanisms and emergent properties.Physics of life reviews · 2016Review
- Article
- Whooping cough dynamics in Chile (1932-2010): disease temporal fluctuations across a north-south gradient.BMC infectious diseases · 2015Article
- Dynamics of Multi-stage Infections on Networks.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2015Article
- Dynamics of Pertussis Transmission in the United States.American journal of epidemiology · 2015Article
- A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2015Article
- Dynamical crises, multistability and the influence of the duration of immunity in a seasonally-forced model of disease transmission.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2014Article
- Perplexities of pertussis: recent global epidemiological trends and their potential causes.Epidemiology and infection · 2014Review
- Characterizing the dynamics of rubella relative to measles: the role of stochasticity.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2013Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Understanding the mechanisms that generate oscillations in the incidence of childhood infectious diseases has preoccupied epidemiologists and population ecologists for nearly two centuries. This body of work has generated simple yet powerful explanations for the epidemics of measles and chickenpox, while the dynamics of other infectious diseases, such as whooping cough, have proved more challenging to decipher. A number of authors have, in recent years, proposed that the noisy and somewhat irregular epidemics of whooping cough may arise due to stochasticity and its interaction with nonlinearity in transmission and seasonal variation in contact rates. The reason underlying the susceptibility of whooping cough dynamics to noise and the precise nature of its transient dynamics remain poorly understood. Here we use household data on the incubation period in order to parametrize more realistic distributions of the latent and infectious periods. We demonstrate that previously reported phenomena result from transients following the interaction between the stable annual attractor and unstable multiennial solutions.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.