ArticleScandinavian journal of public health. Supplement2007
Mortality trends in a new South Africa: hard to make a fresh start.
Article in Scandinavian journal of public health. Supplement, 2007. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 53 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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53 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 109 citations in OpenAlex.
- The development and experience of epidemiological transition theory over four decades: a systematic review.Global health action · 2014Pooled it
- Exposure to Adversity and its Impact on Later Life Cognitive, Mental, and Physical Health.International journal of public health · 2024Article
- Maternal mortality, stillbirths, and neonatal mortality: a transition model based on analyses of 151 countries.The Lancet. Global health · 2023Article
- A review of key terminology and definitions used for birth defects globally.Journal of community genetics · 2023Article
- Mortality transition over a quarter century in rural South Africa: findings from population surveillance in Agincourt 1993-2018.Global health action · 2021Article
- Grandchild Caregiving and Cognitive Health Among Grandparents in Rural South Africa.Journal of aging and health · 2021Article
- Modelled epidemiological data for selected congenital disorders in South Africa.Journal of community genetics · 2021Article
- Receipt of Emotional Support among Rural South African Adults.Ageing and society · 2020Article
- Physical activity, exercise, and chronic diseases: A brief review.Sports medicine and health science · 2019Review
- Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.Lancet (London, England) · 2018Article
- Living Arrangements, Disability and Gender of Older Adults Among Rural South Africa.The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · 2018Article
- Socioeconomic differences in mortality in the antiretroviral therapy era in Agincourt, rural South Africa, 2001-13: a population surveillance analysis.The Lancet. Global health · 2017Article
- Progression of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African setting: findings from population surveillance in Agincourt, 1993-2013.BMC public health · 2017Article
- Sexual Behaviors and HIV Status: A Population-Based Study Among Older Adults in Rural South Africa.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2017Article
- Introducing visual participatory methods to develop local knowledge on HIV in rural South Africa.BMJ global health · 2017Article
- Factors associated with obesity and metabolic syndrome in ageing black South African women.Global health action · 2017Article
- Social participation and perceived depression among elderly population in South Africa.Clinical interventions in aging · 2017Article
- Chronic disease, risk factors and disability in adults aged 50 and above living with and without HIV: findings from the Wellbeing of Older People Study in Uganda.Global health action · 2016Article
- Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition.Lancet (London, England) · 2015Article
- The impacts of maternal mortality and cause of death on children's risk of dying in rural South Africa: evidence from a population based surveillance study (1992-2013).Reproductive health · 2015Article
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4 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
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Abstract
aimsThis paper examines trends in age-specific mortality in a rural South African population from 1992 to 2003, a decade spanning major sociopolitical change and emergence of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Changing mortality patterns are discussed within a health-transition framework.
methodsData on population size, structure, and deaths, obtained from the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system, were used to calculate person-years at risk and death rates. Life tables were computed by age, sex and calendar year. Mortality rates for the early period 1992-93 and a decade later, 2002-03, were compared.
resultsFindings demonstrate significant increases in mortality for both sexes since the mid-1990s, with a rapid decline in life expectancy of 12 years in females and 14 years in males. The increases are most prominent in children (0-4) and young adult (20-49) age groups, in which increases of two- and fivefold respectively have been observed in the past decade. Sex differences in mortality patterns are evident with increases more marked in females in most adult age groups.
conclusionsEmpirical data demonstrate a marked "counter transition" with mortality increasing in children and young adults, "epidemiologic polarization" with vulnerable subgroups experiencing a higher mortality burden, and a "protracted transition" with simultaneous emergence of HIV/AIDS together with increasing non-communicable disease in older adults. The health transition in rural South Africa is unlikely to predict patterns elsewhere; hence the need to examine trends in as many contexts as have the data to support such analyses.
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