ArticleJournal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999)2007
Predicting the impact of a partially effective HIV vaccine and subsequent risk behavior change on the heterosexual HIV epidemic in low- and middle-income countries: A South African example.
Article in Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999), 2007. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 27 citations in OpenAlex.
- Article
- Article
- Review of mathematical models of HSV-2 vaccination: Implications for vaccine development.Vaccine · 2019Review
- HIV population-level adaptation can rapidly diminish the impact of a partially effective vaccine.Vaccine · 2018Article
- Operations research in global health: a scoping review with a focus on the themes of health equity and impact.Health research policy and systems · 2017Article
- Relationship-level analysis of drug users' anticipated changes in risk behavior following HIV vaccination.AIDS care · 2015Article
- Drug users' willingness to encourage social, sexual, and drug network members to receive an HIV vaccine: a social network analysis.AIDS and behavior · 2014Article
- Will HIV vaccination reshape HIV risk behavior networks? A social network analysis of drug users' anticipated risk compensation.PloS one · 2014Article
- Article
- Article
- Article
- Is a HIV vaccine a viable option and at what price? An economic evaluation of adding HIV vaccination into existing prevention programs in Thailand.BMC public health · 2011Article
- Scaling up circumcision programs in Southern Africa: the potential impact of gender disparities and changes in condom use behaviors on heterosexual HIV transmission.AIDS and behavior · 2011Article
- Safety and Immunogenicity of the MRKAd5 gag HIV Type 1 Vaccine in a Worldwide Phase 1 Study of Healthy Adults.AIDS research and human retroviruses · 2011Article
- Article
- Potential population health outcomes and expenditures of HIV vaccination strategies in the United States.Vaccine · 2009Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
We developed a mathematical model to simulate the impact of various partially effective preventive HIV vaccination scenarios in a population at high risk for heterosexually transmitted HIV. We considered an adult population defined by gender (male/female), disease stage (HIV-negative, HIV-positive, AIDS, and death), and vaccination status (unvaccinated/vaccinated) in Soweto, South Africa. Input data included initial HIV prevalence of 20% (women) and 12% (men), vaccination coverage of 75%, and exclusive male negotiation of condom use. We explored how changes in vaccine efficacy and postvaccination condom use would affect HIV prevalence and total HIV infections prevented over a 10-year period. In the base-case scenario, a 40% effective HIV vaccine would avert 61,000 infections and reduce future HIV prevalence from 20% to 13%. A 25% increase (or decrease) in condom use among vaccinated individuals would instead avert 75,000 (or only 46,000) infections and reduce the HIV prevalence to 12% (or only 15%). Furthermore, certain combinations of increased risk behavior and vaccines with <43% efficacy could worsen the epidemic. Even modestly effective HIV vaccines can confer enormous benefits in terms of HIV infections averted and decreased HIV prevalence. However, programs to reduce risk behavior may be important components of successful vaccination campaigns.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.