ArticleInjury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention2007
Raised speed limits, case fatality and road deaths: a six year follow-up using ARIMA models.
Article in Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention, 2007. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 6 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Effectiveness of road safety interventions: An evidence and gap map.Campbell systematic reviews · 2024Article
- Forecasting COVID-19 Epidemic Trends by Combining a Neural Network withEntropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- The effectiveness of fixed speed cameras on Iranian taxi drivers: An evaluation of the influential factors.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities.Injury epidemiology · 2015Article
- Reduction in fatalities, ambulance calls, and hospital admissions for road trauma after implementation of new traffic laws.American journal of public health · 2014Article
- Long-term effects of repealing the national maximum speed limit in the United States.American journal of public health · 2009Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundIn November 1993, the Israeli government increased the speed limit for all vehicles from 90 to 100 km per hour on a total of 115 km of its three major interurban highways. DESIGN/
settingWe use ARIMA time series intervention models to evaluate the effect of the raise in speed limit on fatalities, serious injuries, and case-fatality for years 1988-1999. Motor vehicle crash data came from the Central Bureau of Statistics of Israel.
resultsBetween January 1988 and December 1999, a total of 6029 persons were killed and 45 616 were seriously injured on roads in Israel. For all roads combined, the time series ARIMA model indicated that there were 4.69 more deaths per month (p<0.001), or 347 more than expected in the post-intervention period. Case-fatality rate (CFR) on all roads combined rose significantly (p<0.001). Modified case-fatality rate (CFRS) showed an increase of 2.5 deaths per 100 serious casualties (p<0.001).
conclusionsThe impact of raised speed limits was immediate and sustained. The largest increase in deaths occurred on interurban roads but a spillover effect was observed on urban roads as well. The increases in deaths and case-fatality rates persisted six years after the speed limit change despite major countermeasures and increasing congestion throughout the period of follow-up.
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