ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2007
Emergence of drug resistance: implications for antiviral control of pandemic influenza.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2007. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 42 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
42 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 92 citations in OpenAlex.
- Population-level mathematical modeling of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic review.BMC medicine · 2019Pooled it
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- Modelling and analysing the coexistence of dual dilemmas in the proactive vaccination game and retroactive treatment game in epidemic viral dynamics.Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2019Article
- Managing the emergence of pathogen resistance via spatially targeted antimicrobial use.Evolutionary applications · 2018Article
- Monitoring the fitness of antiviral-resistant influenza strains during an epidemic: a mathematical modelling study.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2017Article
- Modelling the emergence of influenza drug resistance: The roles of surface proteins, the immune response and antiviral mechanisms.PloS one · 2017Article
- Population dynamics of epidemic and endemic states of drug-resistance emergence in infectious diseases.PeerJ · 2017Article
- Pandemic Risk Assessment Model (PRAM): a mathematical modeling approach to pandemic influenza planning.Epidemiology and infection · 2016Article
- Modelling the epidemic spread of an H1N1 influenza outbreak in a rural university town.Epidemiology and infection · 2015Article
- Timing of antimicrobial use influences the evolution of antimicrobial resistance during disease epidemics.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2014Article
- A model for the emergence of drug resistance in the presence of asymptomatic infections.Mathematical biosciences · 2013Article
- Effects of influenza antivirals on individual and population immunity over many epidemic waves.Epidemiology and infection · 2013Article
- Optimizing treatment regimes to hinder antiviral resistance in influenza across time scales.PloS one · 2013Article
- The role of cellular immunity in influenza H1N1 population dynamics.BMC infectious diseases · 2012Article
- How to minimize the attack rate during multiple influenza outbreaks in a heterogeneous population.PloS one · 2012Article
- The use of mathematical models to inform influenza pandemic preparedness and response.Experimental biology and medicine (Maywood, N.J.) · 2011Review
- Optimal antiviral treatment strategies and the effects of resistance.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2011Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 6 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Given the danger of an unprecedented spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5N1 in humans, and great challenges to the development of an effective influenza vaccine, antiviral drugs will probably play a pivotal role in combating a novel pandemic strain. A critical limitation to the use of these drugs is the evolution of highly transmissible drug-resistant viral mutants. Here, we develop a mathematical model to evaluate the potential impact of an antiviral treatment strategy on the emergence of drug resistance and containment of a pandemic. The results show that elimination of the wild-type strain depends crucially on both the early onset of treatment in indexed cases and population-level treatment. Given the probable delay of 0.5-1 day in seeking healthcare and therefore initiating therapy, the findings indicate that a single strategy of antiviral treatment will be unsuccessful at controlling the spread of disease if the reproduction number of the wild-type strain (R0s) exceeds 1.4. We demonstrate the possible occurrence of a self-sustaining epidemic of resistant strain, in terms of its transmission fitness relative to the wild-type, and the reproduction number R0s. Considering reproduction numbers estimated for the past three pandemics, the findings suggest that an uncontrollable pandemic is likely to occur if resistant viruses with relative transmission fitness above 0.4 emerge. While an antiviral strategy is crucial for containing a pandemic, its effectiveness depends critically on timely and strategic use of drugs.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.