ArticleSchizophrenia bulletin2007
Declining transition rate in ultra high risk (prodromal) services: dilution or reduction of risk?
Article in Schizophrenia bulletin, 2007. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT03323437 (Biomarkers of Conversion Risk and Treatment Response in Early-Stage Schizophrenia), which is not on this map. Cited by 130 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Biomarkers of Conversion Risk and Treatment Response in Early-Stage Schizophrenia
Who cites it
130 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Mentalizing in individuals with state and trait risk for psychosis: a systematic review.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2023Pooled it
- Clinical high risk for psychosis in children and adolescents: a systematic review.European child & adolescent psychiatry · 2018Pooled it
- Can We Predict Psychosis Outside the Clinical High-Risk State? A Systematic Review of Non-Psychotic Risk Syndromes for Mental Disorders.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2018Pooled it
- Antiglucocorticoid and related treatments for psychosis.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2016Pooled it
- Neuroanatomical maps of psychosis onset: voxel-wise meta-analysis of antipsychotic-naive VBM studies.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2012Pooled it
- Voxel-wise meta-analysis of fMRI studies in patients at clinical high risk for psychosis.Journal of psychiatry & neuroscience : JPN · 2012Pooled it
- Trial
- Trial
- Early psychosis research at Orygen, The National Centre of Excellence in Youth Mental Health.Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology · 2016Trial
- Primary prevention of psychosis through interventions in the symptomatic prodromal phase, a pragmatic Norwegian Ultra High Risk study.BMC psychiatry · 2015Trial
- A randomized trial of family focused treatment for adolescents and young adults at risk for psychosis: study rationale, design and methods.Early intervention in psychiatry · 2012Trial
- Early detection and intervention evaluation for people at risk of psychosis: multisite randomised controlled trial.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2012Trial
- Trial
- Exploring the Relationship Between Inflammatory Biomarkers and Negative Symptoms Subtypes in Individuals at Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis.Early intervention in psychiatry · 2026Article
- Cholesterol metabolism and its implications in psychotic disorders: a comparative study of individuals at ultra high risk and control groups.European archives of psychiatry and clinical neuroscience · 2026Article
- The electroencephalography protocol for the Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia Program: Reliability and stability of measures.Schizophrenia (Heidelberg, Germany) · 2025Article
- From Synthesis to Solutions: Hydrogels' Impact on the Biomedical Landscape.Current pharmaceutical biotechnology · 2025Review
- The influence of mood and social relationships on the intensity of basic self-disturbance: an experience sampling method investigation.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2025Article
- Non-psychotic Outcomes in Young People at Ultra-High Risk of Developing a Psychotic Disorder: A Long-Term Follow-up Study.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2024Article
- Development and temporal validation of a clinical prediction model of transition to psychosis in individuals at ultra-high risk in the UHR 1000+ cohort.World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA) · 2024Article
70 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
There is growing interest in the prodromal stage of psychotic disorders, with many services now providing care for these "ultra high risk" (UHR) individuals. However, a reduction in the rate of transition to psychosis has been suspected over the last few years. This has implications for the use of interventions in this population and for the validity of research findings. This study examined the transition rate in one UHR service, the Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation Clinic, over the years 1995-2000 and investigated possible causes for the transition rate reduction. There was evidence for a declining transition rate, with each successive year showing a rate 0.80 times that of the preceding year. Functioning and symptom level were not responsible for the change. The decreased transition rate was partly explained by a reduction in the duration of symptoms of patients prior to receiving help. That is, UHR individuals are being detected and provided with care earlier than in the past. Thus, the decline in transition rate may be due to treatment being more effective at this very early stage of illness or it may be due to finding more false positives who were never at risk of psychosis, ie, a "dilution" effect. Given that it is not possible to distinguish between these alternatives at least phenotypically at present, perhaps it is time to rethink the role and practice of UHR clinics. Patients presenting to them need help. It may be that we need to aim to prevent a range of target syndromes.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.