ArticleMathematical biosciences2007
Understanding the transmission dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus using multiple time series and nested models.
Article in Mathematical biosciences, 2007. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
43 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Mathematical modelling of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review.Epidemics · 2021Pooled it
- Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) in an Italian Pediatric Cohort: Genomic Analysis and Circulation Pattern in the Season 2022-2023.Journal of medical virology · 2025Article
- Molecular epidemiological surveillance of respiratory syncytial virus infection in Myanmar from 2019 to 2023.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Identifying climatic drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasonality in Antananarivo, Madagascar, 2011-2021: a sentinel surveillance study.BMJ public health · 2024Article
- Multisite community-scale monitoring of respiratory and enteric viruses in the effluent of a nursing home and in the inlet of the local wastewater treatment plant.Applied and environmental microbiology · 2024Article
- Characterizing the interactions between influenza and respiratory syncytial viruses and their implications for epidemic control.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Global patterns of rebound to normal RSV dynamics following COVID-19 suppression.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- In Silico Clinical Trials: Is It Possible?Methods in molecular biology (Clifton, N.J.) · 2024Article
- Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in temperate climates: A Bayesian modelling study in 143 European regions.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Use of mathematical modelling to assess respiratory syncytial virus epidemiology and interventions: a literature review.Journal of mathematical biology · 2022Review
- The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020Article
- 'Dark matter', second waves and epidemiological modelling.BMJ global health · 2020Review
- Model evaluation of target product profiles of an infant vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in a developed country setting.Vaccine: X · 2020Article
- Article
- Effective immunity and second waves: a dynamic causal modelling study.Wellcome open research · 2020Article
- Epidemic dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in current and future climates.Nature communications · 2019Article
- Superensemble forecast of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks at national, regional, and state levels in the United States.Epidemics · 2019Article
- Article
- Simulation of four respiratory viruses and inference of epidemiological parameters.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2018Article
- Article
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13 authors.
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Abstract
The nature and role of re-infection and partial immunity are likely to be important determinants of the transmission dynamics of human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV). We propose a single model structure that captures four possible host responses to infection and subsequent reinfection: partial susceptibility, altered infection duration, reduced infectiousness and temporary immunity (which might be partial). The magnitude of these responses is determined by four homotopy parameters, and by setting some of these parameters to extreme values we generate a set of eight nested, deterministic transmission models. In order to investigate hRSV transmission dynamics, we applied these models to incidence data from eight international locations. Seasonality is included as cyclic variation in transmission. Parameters associated with the natural history of the infection were assumed to be independent of geographic location, while others, such as those associated with seasonality, were assumed location specific. Models incorporating either of the two extreme assumptions for immunity (none or solid and lifelong) were unable to reproduce the observed dynamics. Model fits with either waning or partial immunity to disease or both were visually comparable. The best fitting structure was a lifelong partial immunity to both disease and infection. Observed patterns were reproduced by stochastic simulations using the parameter values estimated from the deterministic models.
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