ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2007
Is there the potential for an epidemic of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease via blood transfusion in the UK?
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2007. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 31 citations in OpenAlex.
- The importance of ongoing international surveillance for Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.Nature reviews. Neurology · 2021Review
- PMCA Applications for Prion Detection in Peripheral Tissues of Patients with Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease.Biomolecules · 2020Review
- Initial Results of a Prospective Study and Identification of New Strategies to Increase Traceability of Plasma-derived Medicines.Iranian journal of pharmaceutical research : IJPR · 2018Article
- Health Technology Assessment of pathogen reduction technologies applied to plasma for clinical use.Blood transfusion = Trasfusione del sangue · 2016Review
- Prion infectivity in the spleen of a PRNP heterozygous individual with subclinical variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.Brain : a journal of neurology · 2013Article
- Could immunomodulation be used to prevent prion diseases?Expert review of anti-infective therapy · 2012Article
- Article
- Immunomodulation for prion and prion-related diseases.Expert review of vaccines · 2010Review
- Report of the Working Group 'Overall Blood Supply Strategy with Regard to Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD)': Statement on the Development and Implementation of Test Systems Suitable for the Screening of Blood Donors for vCJD - Dated September 17, 2008.Transfusion medicine and hemotherapy : offizielles Organ der Deutschen Gesellschaft fur Transfusionsmedizin und Immunhamatologie · 2009Article
- Factors determining the potential for onward transmission of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease via surgical instruments.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2006Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The discovery of three individuals suspected to have contracted variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) through blood transfusions has heightened concerns that a secondary epidemic via human-to-human transmission could occur in the UK. The Department of Health responded immediately to this threat by banning those who had received blood transfusions since 1980 from donating blood. In this paper, we conduct a sensitivity analysis to explore the potential size of a blood-borne vCJD epidemic and investigate the effectiveness of public health interventions. A mathematical model was developed together with an expression for the basic reproduction number (R0). The sensitivity of model predictions to unknown parameters determining the transmission of vCJD via infected blood was assessed under pessimistic modelling assumptions. We found that the size of the epidemic (up until 2080) was bounded above by 900 cases, with self-sustaining epidemics (R0>1) also possible; but the scenarios under which such epidemics could arise were found to be biologically implausible. Under optimistic assumptions, public health interventions reduced the upper bound to 250 and further still when only biologically plausible scenarios were considered. Our results support the belief that scenarios leading to large or self-sustaining epidemics are possible but unlikely, and that public health interventions were effective.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.