ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2007
A model for the spread and control of pandemic influenza in an isolated geographical region.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2007. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Effectiveness of workplace social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission: a systematic review.BMC public health · 2018Pooled it
- The effects of school closures on influenza outbreaks and pandemics: systematic review of simulation studies.PloS one · 2014Pooled it
- A systematic review to identify areas of enhancements of pandemic simulation models for operational use at provincial and local levels.BMC public health · 2012Pooled it
- Combination strategies for pandemic influenza response - a systematic review of mathematical modeling studies.BMC medicine · 2009Pooled it
- Modelling the epidemic spread of an H1N1 influenza outbreak in a rural university town.Epidemiology and infection · 2015Article
- Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of epidemiological modeling to guide public health intervention policy.Epidemics · 2014Article
- Epidemic models with uncertainty in the reproduction number.Journal of mathematical biology · 2013Article
- Early estimation of the reproduction number in the presence of imported cases: pandemic influenza H1N1-2009 in New Zealand.PloS one · 2011Article
- Analysis of the effectiveness of interventions used during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic.BMC public health · 2010Article
- Threshold parameters for a model of epidemic spread among households and workplaces.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2009Article
- Household structure and infectious disease transmission.Epidemiology and infection · 2009Article
- Scenarios of diffusion and control of an influenza pandemic in Italy.Epidemiology and infection · 2008Article
- Effective, robust design of community mitigation for pandemic influenza: a systematic examination of proposed US guidance.PloS one · 2008Article
- Article
- A biological model for influenza transmission: pandemic planning implications of asymptomatic infection and immunity.PloS one · 2007Article
- Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection.Journal of mathematical biology · 2007Article
- The pluses and minuses of R0.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2007Article
- Time variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918-19.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2007Article
- The influenza pandemic preparedness planning tool InfluSim.BMC infectious diseases · 2007Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In the event of an influenza pandemic, the most probable way in which the virus would be introduced to an isolated geographical area is by an infected traveller. We use a mathematical model, structured on the location at which infection occurs and based on published parameters for influenza, to describe an epidemic in a community of one million people. The model is then modified to reflect a variety of control strategies based on social distancing measures, targeted antiviral treatment and antiviral prophylaxis and home quarantine, and the effectiveness of the strategies is compared. The results suggest that the only single strategy that would be successful in preventing an epidemic (with R0=2.0) is targeted antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, and that closing schools combined with either closing work places or home quarantine would only prevent such an epidemic if these strategies were combined with a modest level of antiviral coverage.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.