ArticlePloS one2007
The emergence of HIV transmitted resistance in Botswana: "when will the WHO detection threshold be exceeded?".
Article in PloS one, 2007. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Population-level mathematical modeling of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic review.BMC medicine · 2019Pooled it
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- Trace the History of HIV and Predict Its Future through Genetic Sequences.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Article
- Mathematical modeling in perspective of vector-borne viral infections: a review.Beni-Suef University journal of basic and applied sciences · 2022Review
- Optimised electronic patient records to improve clinical monitoring of HIV-positive patients in rural South Africa (MONART trial): study protocol for a cluster-randomised trial.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- SBDiEM: A new mathematical model of infectious disease dynamics.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2020Article
- Gender Differences in Sexual and Reproductive Health Protective and Risk Factors of Batswana Adolescents: Implications for Parent and Adolescent Interventions.AIDS education and prevention : official publication of the International Society for AIDS Education · 2018Article
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- Estimating the prevalence of transmitted HIV drug resistance using pooled samples.Statistical methods in medical research · 2016Article
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- Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Hospitalization and Home-Based Care Strategies for People Living with HIV/AIDS: The Case of Zimbabwe.International scholarly research notices · 2014Article
- Modeling the impact on HIV incidence of combination prevention strategies among men who have sex with men in Beijing, China.PloS one · 2014Article
- Mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics.Virulence · 2013Review
- Is 2 a "high number of partners"? Modeling, data, and the power of concurrency.Sexually transmitted diseases · 2013Article
- HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa.PLoS medicine · 2012Article
- What do mathematical models tell us about the emergence and spread of drug-resistant HIV?Current opinion in HIV and AIDS · 2011Review
- Modelling sexual transmission of HIV: testing the assumptions, validating the predictions.Current opinion in HIV and AIDS · 2010Review
- Transmitted drug resistance in nonsubtype B HIV-1 infection.HIV therapy · 2009Article
- Modelling the evolution of drug resistance in the presence of antiviral drugs.BMC public health · 2007Article
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2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe Botswana antiretroviral program began in 2002 and currently treats 42,000 patients, with a goal of treating 85,000 by 2009. The World Health Organization (WHO) has begun to implement a surveillance system for detecting transmitted resistance that exceeds a threshold of 5%. However, the WHO has not determined when this threshold will be reached. Here we model the Botswana government's treatment plan and predict, to 2009, the likely stochastic evolution of transmitted resistance.
methodsWe developed a model of the stochastic evolution of drug-resistant strains and formulated a birth-death Master equation. We analyzed this equation to obtain an analytical solution of the probabilistic evolutionary trajectory for transmitted resistance, and used treatment and demographic data from Botswana. We determined the temporal dynamics of transmitted resistance as a function of: (i) the transmissibility (i.e., fitness) of the drug-resistant strains that may evolve and (ii) the rate of acquired resistance.
resultsTransmitted resistance in Botswana will be unlikely to exceed the WHO's threshold by 2009 even if the rate of acquired resistance is high and the strains that evolve are half as fit as the wild-type strains. However, we also found that transmission of drug-resistant strains in Botswana could increase to approximately 15% by 2009 if the drug-resistant strains that evolve are as fit as the wild-type strains.
conclusionsTransmitted resistance will only be detected by the WHO (by 2009) if the strains that evolve are extremely fit and acquired resistance is high. Initially after a treatment program is begun a threshold lower than 5% should be used; and we advise that predictions should be made before setting a threshold. Our results indicate that it may be several years before the WHO's surveillance system is likely to detect transmitted resistance in other resource-poor countries that have significantly less ambitious treatment programs than Botswana.
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