ArticleEpidemiology and infection2007
Comparison of smallpox outbreak control strategies using a spatial metapopulation model.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2007. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 39 citations in OpenAlex.
- Modelling of optimal vaccination strategies in response to a bioterrorism associated smallpox outbreak.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2021Article
- Controlling infectious disease outbreaks: A deterministic allocation-scheduling model with multiple discrete resources.Journal of systems science and systems engineering · 2017Article
- Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.PloS one · 2016Article
- The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks.PLoS computational biology · 2014Article
- Human mobility and the worldwide impact of intentional localized highly pathogenic virus release.Scientific reports · 2013Article
- Optimal but unequitable prophylactic distribution of vaccine.Epidemics · 2012Review
- Targeting vaccination against novel infections: risk, age and spatial structure for pandemic influenza in Great Britain.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2011Article
- Networks and the epidemiology of infectious disease.Interdisciplinary perspectives on infectious diseases · 2011Article
- Modelling emerging viral epidemics for public health protection.Methods in molecular biology (Clifton, N.J.) · 2011Article
- Article
- Individual identity and movement networks for disease metapopulations.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2010Article
- The impact of contact tracing in clustered populations.PLoS computational biology · 2010Article
- Contingency planning for a deliberate release of smallpox in Great Britain--the role of geographical scale and contact structure.BMC infectious diseases · 2010Article
- The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain.Epidemics · 2009Article
- Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2008Review
- Accuracy of models for the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2008Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
To determine the potential benefits of regionally targeted mass vaccination as an adjunct to other smallpox control strategies we employed a spatial metapopulation patch model based on the administrative districts of Great Britain. We counted deaths due to smallpox and to vaccination to identify strategies that minimized total deaths. Results confirm that case isolation, and the tracing, vaccination and observation of case contacts can be optimal for control but only for optimistic assumptions concerning, for example, the basic reproduction number for smallpox (R0=3) and smaller numbers of index cases ( approximately 10). For a wider range of scenarios, including larger numbers of index cases and higher reproduction numbers, the addition of mass vaccination targeted only to infected districts provided an appreciable benefit (5-80% fewer deaths depending on where the outbreak started with a trigger value of 1-10 isolated symptomatic individuals within a district).
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.