ArticleBritish journal of cancer2007
Estimating the long-term impact of a prophylactic human papillomavirus 16/18 vaccine on the burden of cervical cancer in the UK.
Article in British journal of cancer, 2007. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 113 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pooled it
- Effectiveness and cost effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccine: a systematic review.PharmacoEconomics · 2009Pooled it
- A Scoping Review on Calibration Methods for Cancer Simulation Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- Assessing the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination strategies for adolescent girls and boys in the UK.BMC infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Impact of HPV vaccination with Gardasil® in Switzerland.BMC infectious diseases · 2017Article
- Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination in Germany.Cost effectiveness and resource allocation : C/E · 2017Article
- Calibration of complex models through Bayesian evidence synthesis: a demonstration and tutorial.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2015Article
- Article
- Geographic poverty and racial/ethnic disparities in cervical cancer precursor rates in Connecticut, 2008-2009.American journal of public health · 2013Article
- Incorporating calibrated model parameters into sensitivity analyses: deterministic and probabilistic approaches.PharmacoEconomics · 2012Article
- Inference of type-specific HPV transmissibility, progression and clearance rates: a mathematical modelling approach.PloS one · 2012Article
- Article
- Increasing rates of cervical cancer in young women in England: an analysis of national data 1982-2006.British journal of cancer · 2011Article
- A generally applicable cost-effectiveness model for the evaluation of vaccines against cervical cancer.International journal of public health · 2011Article
- Cost-effectiveness of different human papillomavirus vaccines in Singapore.BMC public health · 2011Article
- Review
- Using simulation-optimization to construct screening strategies for cervical cancer.Health care management science · 2010Article
- Methods of model calibration: observations from a mathematical model of cervical cancer.PharmacoEconomics · 2010Article
- Ethnic differences in human papillomavirus awareness and vaccine acceptability.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2009Article
- A cost-utility analysis of cervical cancer vaccination in preadolescent Canadian females.BMC public health · 2009Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
To predict the public health impact on cervical disease by introducing human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in the United Kingdom, we developed a mathematical model that can be used to reflect the impact of vaccination in different countries with existing screening programmes. Its use is discussed in the context of the United Kingdom. The model was calibrated with published data. The impact of vaccination on cervical cancer and deaths, precancerous lesions and screening outcomes were estimated for a vaccinated cohort of 12-year-old girls, among which it is estimated that there would be a reduction of 66% in the prevalence of high-grade precancerous lesions and a 76% reduction in cervical cancer deaths. Estimates for various other measures of the population effects of vaccination are also presented. We concluded that it is feasible to forecast the potential effects of HPV vaccination in the context of an existing national screening programme. Results suggest a sizable reduction in the incidence of cervical cancer and related deaths. Areas for future research include investigation of the beneficial effects of HPV vaccination on infection transmission and epidemic dynamics, as well as HPV-related neoplasms in other sites.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.