ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2006
Inference for nonlinear dynamical systems.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2006. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 161 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
161 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
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- A hybrid framework for compartmental models enabling simulation-based inference.Journal of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Detecting changepoints in dynamical systems: Modeling time-varying transmission of seasonal influenza.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Noisy periodicity in tropical respiratory disease dynamics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Assessing the impact of climate and control interventions on spatio-temporal malaria dynamics using a stochastic metapopulation model.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Survey on mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics: insights and applications.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Review
- Inferring asymptomatic carriers of antimicrobial-resistant organisms in hospitals using genomic, microbiological and patient mobility data.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Intersecting Memories of Immunity and Climate: Potential Multiyear Impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Infectious Disease Spread.GeoHealth · 2025Article
- Integrating artificial intelligence with mechanistic epidemiological modeling: a scoping review of opportunities and challenges.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Ordinal Outcome State-Space Models for Intensive Longitudinal Data.Psychometrika · 2024Article
- Quantifying suicide contagion at population scale.Science advances · 2024Article
- Parameter estimation in a whole-brain network model of epilepsy: Comparison of parallel global optimization solvers.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Inference on spatiotemporal dynamics for coupled biological populations.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Modelling the unexpected dynamics of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Using neural ordinary differential equations to predict complex ecological dynamics from population density data.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
101 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems are widely used to model systems across the sciences and engineering. Such models are natural to formulate and can be analyzed mathematically and numerically. However, difficulties associated with inference from time-series data about unknown parameters in these models have been a constraint on their application. We present a new method that makes maximum likelihood estimation feasible for partially-observed nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems (also known as state-space models) where this was not previously the case. The method is based on a sequence of filtering operations which are shown to converge to a maximum likelihood parameter estimate. We make use of recent advances in nonlinear filtering in the implementation of the algorithm. We apply the method to the study of cholera in Bangladesh. We construct confidence intervals, perform residual analysis, and apply other diagnostics. Our analysis, based upon a model capturing the intrinsic nonlinear dynamics of the system, reveals some effects overlooked by previous studies.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.