ArticleEuropean journal of epidemiology2006
Frailty modelling of colorectal cancer incidence in Norway: indications that individual heterogeneity in risk is related to birth cohort.
Article in European journal of epidemiology, 2006. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 13 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prostate-specific antigen testing for prostate cancer: Depleting a limited pool of susceptible individuals?European journal of epidemiology · 2017Article
- Protecting the cancer susceptibility curve.Environmental health perspectives · 2013Article
- Is cancer incidence decreased in the frail elderly? Evidence from a prospective cohort study.Journal of geriatric oncology · 2013Article
- Frailty modeling of age-incidence curves of osteosarcoma and Ewing sarcoma among individuals younger than 40 years.Statistics in medicine · 2012Article
- Frailty modeling of bimodal age-incidence curves of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in low-risk populations.Biostatistics (Oxford, England) · 2009Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Some cancer types level off or decrease in incidence at older age groups, not following the Weibull hazard rate. This stagnation can be explained by the frailty model, which describes the population effect of mixing individuals who are susceptible, with high risk of cancer, with those that are "non-susceptible", with a low risk of cancer even in the oldest age groups. The aim of the study was to apply a frailty model on colorectal cancer incidence data for the Norwegian population aged 40-99 years, diagnosed 1956-2000. The model provided an acceptable fit to the data. The estimated proportion of susceptibles increased from about 5% to about 24% from the first cohort (1851-1855) to the last cohort (1946-1950), in line with the rise in incidence of the disease during this period. According to the frailty modelling, the estimated number of genetic events necessary for a malignant lesion to develop in the colorectum is seven to eight, which accords with the present knowledge regarding colorectal carcinogenesis. The frailty phenomenon may thus be present in this cancer form. The findings indicate that it is possible to model the development of colorectal cancer in the population based on large heterogeneity in risk between individuals, in such a manner that a small group of individuals are susceptible to develop the disease, whereas the remaining majority have a low susceptibility.
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