ArticleMalaria journal2006
Modelling entomological-climatic interactions of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two Colombian endemic-regions: contributions to a National Malaria Early Warning System.
Article in Malaria journal, 2006. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed.
- Skin mycosis distribution, and burden of visits over a decade in Colombia: ecological study.IJID regions · 2024Article
- Weekly Forecasting of Yellow Fever Occurrence and Incidence via Eco-Meteorological Dynamics.GeoHealth · 2023Article
- Early warning systems (EWSs) for chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika outbreaks: What is the evidence? A scoping review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Concomitant malaria, dengue and COVID-19: an extraordinary challenge for Colombia's public health system.Current opinion in environmental sustainability · 2020Article
- Mitigation of the Adverse Effects of the El Niño (El Niño, La Niña) Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon and the Most Important Diseases in Avocado cv. Hass Crops.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2020Article
- Investigating climate suitability conditions for malaria transmission and impacts of climate variability on mosquito survival in the humid tropical region: a case study of Obafemi Awolowo University Campus, Ile-Ife, south-western Nigeria.International journal of biometeorology · 2020Article
- Antibody Responses AgainstFrontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2020Article
- IgG1 and IgG4 antibodies against Aedes aegypti salivary proteins and risk for dengue infections.PloS one · 2019Article
- An analysis of the influence of the local effects of climatic and hydrological factors affecting new malaria cases in riverine areas along the Rio Negro and surrounding Puraquequara Lake, Amazonas, Brazil.Environmental monitoring and assessment · 2018Article
- Malaria intensity in Colombia by regions and populations.PloS one · 2018Article
- Malaria early warning tool: linking inter-annual climate and malaria variability in northern Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands.Malaria journal · 2017Article
- Characterisation of larval habitats, species composition and factors associated with the seasonal abundance of mosquito fauna in Gezira, Sudan.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2017Article
- A Weather-Based Prediction Model of Malaria Prevalence in Amenfi West District, Ghana.Malaria research and treatment · 2017Article
- A climate-driven mechanistic population model of Aedes albopictus with diapause.Parasites & vectors · 2016Article
- Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2015Review
- Implementation of malaria dynamic models in municipality level early warning systems in Colombia. Part I: description of study sites.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2014Article
- A dynamic model of some malaria-transmitting anopheline mosquitoes of the Afrotropical region. I. Model description and sensitivity analysis.Malaria journal · 2013Article
- How malaria models relate temperature to malaria transmission.Parasites & vectors · 2013Article
- Article
- Effect of seasonality and ecological factors on the prevalence of the four malaria parasite species in northern mali.Journal of tropical medicine · 2012Article
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7 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundMalaria has recently re-emerged as a public health burden in Colombia. Although the problem seems to be climate-driven, there remain significant gaps of knowledge in the understanding of the complexity of malaria transmission, which have motivated attempts to develop a comprehensive model.
methodsThe mathematical tool was applied to represent Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two endemic-areas. Entomological exogenous variables were estimated through field campaigns and laboratory experiments. Availability of breeding places was included towards representing fluctuations in vector densities. Diverse scenarios, sensitivity analyses and instabilities cases were considered during experimentation-validation process.
resultsCorrelation coefficients and mean square errors between observed and modelled incidences reached 0.897-0.668 (P > 0.95) and 0.0002-0.0005, respectively. Temperature became the most relevant climatic parameter driving the final incidence. Accordingly, malaria outbreaks are possible during the favourable epochs following the onset of El Niño warm events. Sporogonic and gonotrophic cycles showed to be the entomological key-variables controlling the transmission potential of mosquitoes' population. Simulation results also showed that seasonality of vector density becomes an important factor towards understanding disease transmission.
conclusionThe model constitutes a promising tool to deepen the understanding of the multiple interactions related to malaria transmission conducive to outbreaks. In the foreseeable future it could be implemented as a tool to diagnose possible dynamical patterns of malaria incidence under several scenarios, as well as a decision-making tool for the early detection and control of outbreaks. The model will be also able to be merged with forecasts of El Niño events to provide a National Malaria Early Warning System.
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