Potential impact of conjugate vaccine on the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease among children in Scotland.

We sought to determine the potential impact of seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among children in Scotland. Invasive pneumococci from blood and cerebrospinal fluid, isolated between 2000 and 2004 from all children aged less than 5 years in Scotland, were characterized by serotyping. Using reported efficacy data of the seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) along with likely coverage rates, we made an estimation of the potential impact on the incidence of IPD among children in Scotland. A total of 217 pneumococci were characterized into 22 different serogroups/types, the most common, in rank order, being 14, 19F, 6B, 18C, 23F, 9V, 4, 1, 19A, and 6A. Estimated serotype coverage for PCV7 was 76.5% in those aged less than 5 years of age but increased to 88.9% for those aged 1 year. By using serotype coverage and estimates of vaccine efficacy and uptake, the potential impact of the vaccine for those greater than 2 months of age, but less than 5 years, was estimated as 67.3%, leading to an average of 29 preventable cases per year. The introduction of PCV7 into the childhood immunization schedule would reduce the burden of pneumococcal disease in children, and the incidence would be particularly reduced in those children aged 1 year. Additional benefits may be gained in adults through herd protection. Continued surveillance of IPD is required before, during, and after the introduction of PCV7.