ArticleBreast cancer research : BCR2006
Overdiagnosis and overtreatment of breast cancer: microsimulation modelling estimates based on observed screen and clinical data.
Article in Breast cancer research : BCR, 2006. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Screening for breast cancer: an update for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.Annals of internal medicine · 2009Pooled it
- Modelling the overdiagnosis of breast cancer due to mammography screening in women aged 40 to 49 in the United Kingdom.Breast cancer research : BCR · 2012Trial
- Semaphorin-7A promotes macrophage-mediated mammary epithelial and ductal carcinoma in situ invasion.Breast cancer research : BCR · 2025Article
- Breast Cancer Screening and Perceptions of Harm among Young Adults in Japan: Results of a Cross-Sectional Online Survey.Current oncology (Toronto, Ont.) · 2023Article
- Overdiagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma: Prevented by guidelines?Hepatology (Baltimore, Md.) · 2022Review
- Ductal Carcinoma in Situ: State-of-the-Art Review.Radiology · 2022Review
- Ductal Carcinoma In Situ Biology, Language, and Active Surveillance: A Survey of Breast Radiologists' Knowledge and Opinions.Journal of the American College of Radiology : JACR · 2020Article
- Modeling the natural history of ductal carcinoma in situ based on population data.Breast cancer research : BCR · 2020Article
- Identification of the Fraction of Indolent Tumors and Associated Overdiagnosis in Breast Cancer Screening Trials.American journal of epidemiology · 2019Article
- Modeling Ductal Carcinoma In Situ (DCIS): An Overview of CISNET Model Approaches.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2018Article
- Benefits and harms of mammography screening.Breast cancer research : BCR · 2015Review
- Overdiagnosis: epidemiologic concepts and estimation.Epidemiology and health · 2015Article
- Cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit analyses of risk-based screening strategies for breast cancer.PloS one · 2014Article
- Interpreting overdiagnosis estimates in population-based mammography screening.Epidemiologic reviews · 2011Review
- Breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in Catalonia (Spain).Breast cancer research : BCR · 2010Article
- Bayesian Calibration of Microsimulation Models.Journal of the American Statistical Association · 2009Article
- Effects of mammography screening under different screening schedules: model estimates of potential benefits and harms.Annals of internal medicine · 2009Article
- Imaging studies for the early detection of breast cancer.Deutsches Arzteblatt international · 2008Article
- Advantages and Disadvantages of Mammography Screening.Breast care (Basel, Switzerland)Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
There is a delicate balance between the favourable and unfavourable side-effects of screening in general. Overdiagnosis, the detection of breast cancers by screening that would otherwise never have been clinically diagnosed but are now consequently treated, is such an unfavourable side effect. To correctly model the natural history of breast cancer, one has to estimate mean durations of the different pre-clinical phases, transition probabilities to clinical cancer stages, and sensitivity of the applied test based on observed screen and clinical data. The Dutch data clearly show an increase in screen-detected cases in the 50 to 74 year old age group since the introduction of screening, and a decline in incidence around age 80 years. We had estimated that 3% of total incidence would otherwise not have been diagnosed clinically. This magnitude is no reason not to offer screening for women aged 50 to 74 years. The increases in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) are primarily due to mammography screening, but DCIS still remains a relatively small proportion of the total breast cancer problem.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.