Evidence map›Paper›PMID 16281999›Full record

ArticleThe British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners2005

The accuracy of the Framingham risk-score in different socioeconomic groups: a prospective study.

Peter M Brindle, Alex McConnachie, Mark N Upton, Carole L Hart, George Davey Smith, Graham C M Watt

Abstract readEvaluation Study
In one paragraph

Article in The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners, 2005. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 81 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
81citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

81 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  9. MOSCARD - Multimodal Opportunistic Screening for Cardiovascular Adverse events with Causal Reasoning and De-confounding.Medical image computing and computer-assisted intervention : MICCAI ... International Conference on Medical Image Computing and Computer-Assisted Intervention · 2026
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  11. Mitigating Bias in Opportunistic Screening for MACE with Causal Reasoning.IEEE transactions on artificial intelligence · 2025
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  19. Cardiovascular comorbidities in psoriatic arthritis: state of the art.Therapeutic advances in musculoskeletal disease · 2024
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21 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Peter M BrindleDepartment of Social Medicine, University of Bristol. peter.brindle@bristol.ac.uk
Alex McConnachie
Mark N Upton
Carole L Hart
George Davey Smith
Graham C M Watt

Funding

Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe primary prevention of cardiovascular disease involves using the Framingham risk score to identify high risk patients and then prescribe preventive treatments.

aimTo examine the performance of the Framingham risk score in different socioeconomic groups in a population with high rates of cardiovascular disease. DESIGN OF STUDY: A prospective study.

settingWest of Scotland.

methodThe observed 10-year cardiovascular disease and coronary heart disease mortality rates in 5626 men and 6678 women free from cardiovascular disease from the Renfrew/Paisley Study were compared with predicted rates, stratified by socioeconomic class and by area deprivation score.

resultsThe ratio of predicted to observed cardiovascular mortality rate in the 12 304 men and women with complete risk factor information was 0.56 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.52 to 0.60), a relative underestimation of 44%. Cardiovascular disease mortality was underestimated by 48% in manual participants (predicted over observed = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.48 to 0.56) compared to 31% in the non-manual participants (predicted over observed = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.60 to 0.81, P = 0.0005). Underestimation was also worse in participants from deprived areas (P = 0.0017). Only 4.8% of individuals had a 10-year cardiovascular risk of >40% (equivalent to >30% 10-year coronary risk), and 81% of deaths occurred in the rest. If the Framingham score had been recalibrated for manual and non-manual members of this population, an additional 3611 individuals mainly from manual social classes would have reached the treatment threshold.

conclusionCurrently recommended risk scoring methods underestimate risk in socioeconomically deprived individuals. The likely consequence is that preventive treatments are less available to the most needy.

Indexed as

AdultCardiovascular DiseasesFemaleHealth Status IndicatorsHumansMaleMass ScreeningMiddle AgedPredictive Value of TestsProspective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsSensitivity and SpecificitySocioeconomic Factors

Identifiers

PMID16281999
PMCPMC1570792

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.