ArticleEmerging themes in epidemiology2005
The epidemiological impact of antiretroviral use predicted by mathematical models: a review.
Article in Emerging themes in epidemiology, 2005. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
40 citing papers in PubMed.
- Trial
- Modeling HIV transmission risk among Mozambicans prior to their initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy.AIDS care · 2007Trial
- Trace the History of HIV and Predict Its Future through Genetic Sequences.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Article
- Gonorrhoea and chlamydia diagnosis as an entry point for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis: a modelling study.BMJ open · 2019Article
- The Impact of Preexposure Prophylaxis Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: An Individual-Based Model.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2017Article
- Predicting HIV-1 transmission and antibody neutralization efficacy in vivo from stoichiometric parameters.PLoS pathogens · 2017Article
- Predicting the extinction of HIV-2 in rural Guinea-Bissau.AIDS (London, England) · 2015Article
- The dual impact of antiretroviral therapy and sexual behaviour changes on HIV epidemiologic trends in Uganda: a modelling study.Sexually transmitted infections · 2014Review
- Antiretroviral treatment of HIV-1 prevents transmission of HIV-1: where do we go from here?Lancet (London, England) · 2013Review
- InterVA versus Spectrum: how comparable are they in estimating AIDS mortality patterns in Nairobi's informal settlements?Global health action · 2013Article
- Elimination of HIV in South Africa through expanded access to antiretroviral therapy: a model comparison study.PLoS medicine · 2013Article
- HIV mortality in urban slums of Nairobi, Kenya 2003-2010: a period effect analysis.BMC public health · 2013Article
- Alcohol use and HIV serostatus of partner predict high-risk sexual behavior among patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in South Western Uganda.BMC public health · 2013Article
- Low prevalence of transmitted HIV type 1 drug resistance among antiretroviral-naive adults in a rural HIV clinic in Kenya.AIDS research and human retroviruses · 2013Article
- Antiviral agents and HIV prevention: controversies, conflicts, and consensus.AIDS (London, England) · 2012Review
- The dynamics of sexual contact networks: effects on disease spread and control.Theoretical population biology · 2012Article
- HIV treatment as prevention: principles of good HIV epidemiology modelling for public health decision-making in all modes of prevention and evaluation.PLoS medicine · 2012Article
- HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa.PLoS medicine · 2012Article
- Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study.PloS one · 2012Article
- Comparability of results from pair and classical model formulations for different sexually transmitted infections.PloS one · 2012Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
This review summarises theoretical studies attempting to assess the population impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) use on mortality and HIV incidence. We describe the key parameters that determine the impact of therapy, and argue that mathematical models of disease transmission are the natural framework within which to explore the interaction between antiviral use and the dynamics of an HIV epidemic. Our review focuses on the potential effects of ART in resource-poor settings. We discuss choice of model type and structure, the potential for risk behaviour change following widespread introduction of ART, the importance of the stage of HIV infection at which treatment is initiated, and the potential for spread of drug resistance. These issues are illustrated with results from models of HIV transmission. We demonstrate that HIV transmission models predicting the impact of ART use should incorporate a realistic progression through stages of HIV infection in order to capture the effect of the timing of treatment initiation on disease spread. The realism of existing models falls short of properly reproducing patterns of diagnosis timing, incorporating heterogeneity in sexual behaviour, and describing the evolution and transmission of drug resistance. The uncertainty surrounding certain effects of ART, such as changes in sexual behaviour and transmission of ART-resistant HIV strains, demands exploration of best and worst case scenarios in modelling, but this must be complemented by surveillance and behavioural surveys to quantify such effects in settings where ART is implemented.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.