Evidence map›Paper›PMID 16004738›Full record

ArticleThe British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners2005

Case-mix and variation in specialist referrals in general practice.

Caoimhe O Sullivan, Rumana Z Omar, Gareth Ambler, Azeem Majeed

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners, 2005. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
32citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

32 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
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  8. Observational
  9. Influences of socioeconomic deprivation on GPs' decisions to refer patients to cardiology: a qualitative study.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2018
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  11. Clinical outcome of head and neck cancer patients: a comparison between ENT patients referred via the 2 weeks wait pathway and alternative routes in the UK health system.European archives of oto-rhino-laryngology : official journal of the European Federation of Oto-Rhino-Laryngological Societies (EUFOS) : affiliated with the German Society for Oto-Rhino-Laryngology - Head and Neck Surgery · 2017
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  15. Examining the variation in GPs' referral practice: a cross-sectional study of GPs' reasons for referral.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2014
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  18. Adverse events recorded in English primary care: observational study using the General Practice Research Database.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2013
    Observational
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Caoimhe O SullivanUniversity College London Hospital NHS Trust. caoimhe.osullivan@uclh.nhs.uk
Rumana Z Omar
Gareth Ambler
Azeem Majeed

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe potential of a comprehensive measure of patient morbidity to explain variation in referrals to secondary care has not previously been examined in the UK.

aimTo examine the relative role of age, sex and morbidity as defined by the Johns Hopkins ACG Case-Mix System in explaining variations in specialist referrals in general practice. DESIGN OF STUDY: Retrospective study of a cohort of patients followed for 1 year.

settingTwo hundred and two general practices, with a total list size of 1,161,892, contributing data to the General Practice Research Database.

methodEach patient was assigned an ACG and morbidity group, based on their diagnoses, age and sex. The variability in referrals explained by these factors was examined using multilevel logistic regression models by splitting it into variation between practices and variation between patients within practices.

resultsThe annual median (range) percentage of patients referred was 14.8% (range = 2.4-24.4%). The percentage of patients referred increased with age and morbidity. Morbidity explained 30.4% of the total variation in referrals (composed of variability between and within practices). Age and sex only explained 5.3% of the total variation. The variation attributable to practices was approximately 5%, thus most of the variation occurred within practices. Morbidity was also identified as a better predictor of referral compared to age and sex.

conclusionsMorbidity explains almost six times more of the variation in general practice referrals than age and sex, although about two-thirds of the variation remains unexplained. Most of the unexplained variation is due to differences within rather than between practices. The amount of variability in referrals between practices may be less than implied by previous studies based on aggregate information. The implications are that any investigation of specialist referrals from general practice should be interpreted cautiously, even after adjustment for age, sex and morbidity.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultAgedAge FactorsChildChild, PreschoolCohort StudiesDiagnosis-Related GroupsFamily PracticeFemaleHumansInfantInfant, NewbornMaleMiddle AgedPhysician's Role

Identifiers

PMID16004738
PMCPMC1472770

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.