ArticlePharmacoEconomics2005
Incorporation of uncertainty in health economic modelling studies.
Article in PharmacoEconomics, 2005. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed.
- Model-Projected Cost-Effectiveness of Adult Hearing Screening in the USA.Journal of general internal medicine · 2023Article
- Estimated Monetary Value of Future Research Clarifying Uncertainties Around the Optimal Adult Hearing Screening Schedule.JAMA health forum · 2022Article
- The Application and Implications of Novel Deterministic Sensitivity Analysis Methods.PharmacoEconomics · 2021Article
- A Bayesian parametric approach to handle missing longitudinal outcome data in trial-based health economic evaluations.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) · 2020Article
- A Latent Class Approach to Modeling Trajectories of Health Care Cost in Pediatric Cystic Fibrosis.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2019Article
- Economic Analysis of Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening and Selective Treatment Strategies.JAMA oncology · 2016Article
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- Cost-Effectiveness of a Biopsy-Based 8-Protein Prostate Cancer Prognostic Assay to Optimize Treatment Decision Making in Gleason 3 + 3 and 3 + 4 Early Stage Prostate Cancer.The oncologist · 2015Article
- Projected Clinical, Resource Use, and Fiscal Impacts of Implementing Low-Dose Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening in Medicare.Journal of oncology practice · 2015Article
- Article
- Cost-effectiveness of a 14-gene risk score assay to target adjuvant chemotherapy in early stage non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer.The oncologist · 2014Article
- The effectiveness and cost effectiveness of dark chocolate consumption as prevention therapy in people at high risk of cardiovascular disease: best case scenario analysis using a Markov model.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2012Article
- Evidence-based medicine in psychopharmacotherapy: possibilities, problems and limitations.European archives of psychiatry and clinical neuroscience · 2010Article
- Is evidence sufficient for evidence-based medicine?European archives of psychiatry and clinical neuroscience · 2009Review
- Review
- The cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment in Khayelitsha, South Africa--a primary data analysis.Cost effectiveness and resource allocation : C/E · 2006Article
- Incorporation of uncertainty in health economic modelling studies.PharmacoEconomics · 2005Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In a recent leading article in PharmacoEconomics, Nuijten described some methods for incorporating uncertainty into health economic models and for utilising the information on uncertainty regarding the cost effectiveness of a therapy in resource allocation decision-making. His proposals are found to suffer from serious flaws in statistical and health economic reasoning.Nuijten's suggestions for incorporating uncertainty: (a) wrongly interpret the p-value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true; (b) represent this probability wrongly by truncating the input distribution; and (c) in the specific example of an antiparkinsonian drug uses a completely inappropriate p-value of 0.05 when the null hypothesis would, in reality, be emphatically disproved by the data.His suggestions regarding minimum important differences in cost effectiveness: (a) introduce areas of indifference that suggest inappropriate reliance on cost minimisation while failing to recognise that decisions should be based on expected costs versus benefits; and (b) offer no guidance on how the probabilities associated with these areas could be used in decision-making. Furthermore, Nuijten's model for Parkinson's disease is over-simplified to the point of providing a bad example of modelling practice, which may mislead the readers of PharmacoEconomics. The rationale for this paper is to ensure that readers do not apply inappropriate analyses as a result of following the proposals contained in Nuijten's paper. In addition to a detailed critique of Nuijten's proposals, we provide brief summaries of the currently accepted best practice in cost-effectiveness decision-making under uncertainty.
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Identifiers
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.