ArticleJournal of theoretical biology2005
The effect of treatment on pathogen virulence.
Article in Journal of theoretical biology, 2005. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed.
- The evolution of post-infection mortality.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
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- Non-pharmaceutical interventions and the emergence of pathogen variants.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2023Article
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- Winter is coming-Temperature affects immune defenses and susceptibility to Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans.PLoS pathogens · 2021Article
- Treating symptomatic infections and the co-evolution of virulence and drug resistance.Peer community journal · 2021Article
- Virulence-mediated infectiousness and activity trade-offs and their impact on transmission potential of influenza patients.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2020Article
- Vaccine-driven virulence evolution: consequences of unbalanced reductions in mortality and transmission and implications for pertussis vaccines.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2019Article
- Contrasting evolution of virulence and replication rate in an emerging bacterial pathogen.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2019Article
- Bi-logistic model for disease dynamics caused byRoyal Society open science · 2017Article
- Modelling the evolution of HIV-1 virulence in response to imperfect therapy and prophylaxis.Evolutionary applications · 2017Article
- The role of evolutionary biology in research and control of liver flukes in Southeast Asia.Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases · 2016Review
- Evolution of HIV virulence in response to widespread scale up of antiretroviral therapy: a modeling study.Virus evolution · 2016Article
- An Agent-Based Model of School Closing in Under-Vacccinated Communities During Measles Outbreaks.Agent-Directed Simulation Symposium (ADS). Agent-directed Simulation Symposium · 2016Article
- The Need for Evolutionarily Rational Disease Interventions: Vaccination Can Select for Higher Virulence.PLoS biology · 2015Article
- Article
- Multiple scales of selection influence the evolutionary emergence of novel pathogens.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2013Article
- Phylodynamic analysis of the emergence and epidemiological impact of transmissible defective dengue viruses.PLoS pathogens · 2013Article
- Optimality of a time-dependent treatment profile during an epidemic.Journal of biological dynamics · 2013Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The optimal virulence of a pathogen is determined by a trade-off between maximizing the rate of transmission and maximizing the duration of infectivity. Treatment measures such as curative therapy and case isolation exert selective pressure by reducing the duration of infectivity, reducing the value of duration-increasing strategies to the pathogen and favoring pathogen strategies that maximize the rate of transmission. We extend the trade-off models of previous authors, and represents the reproduction number of the pathogen as a function of the transmissibility, host contact rate, disease-induced mortality, recovery rate, and treatment rate, each of which may be influenced by the virulence. We find that when virulence is subject to a transmissibility-mortality trade-off, treatment can lead to an increase in optimal virulence, but that in other scenarios (such as the activity-recovery trade-off) treatment decreases the optimal virulence. Paradoxically, when levels of treatment rise with pathogen virulence, increasing control efforts may raise predicted levels of optimal virulence. Thus we show that conflict can arise between the epidemiological benefits of treatment and the evolutionary risks of heightened virulence.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.