ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2004
Modelling strategies for minimizing the impact of an imported exotic infection.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2004. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Unifying incidence and prevalence under a time-varying general branching process.Journal of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- The importance of the generation interval in investigating dynamics and control of new SARS-CoV-2 variants.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Speed and strength of an epidemic intervention.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Forward-looking serial intervals correctly link epidemic growth to reproduction numbers.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- Inferring generation-interval distributions from contact-tracing data.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Threshold parameters for a model of epidemic spread among households and workplaces.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2009Article
- Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection.Journal of mathematical biology · 2007Article
- A model for the spread and control of pandemic influenza in an isolated geographical region.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2007Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The global epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 demonstrated the need to determine control strategies for exotic infections. The prior determination of such strategies, and the use of mathematical models to assist this, is hampered by the obvious lack of data. We propose an integral equation model of Kermack-McKendrick type that may be used to compare strategies based on the isolation of infectious individuals. The model structures the incidence of infection according to the location of an infected individual at exposure, and requires knowledge of the infectivity kernel and the initial rate of exponential increase of cases. The model's use in the design of strategies to minimize the risk of SARS in a previously unexposed community is demonstrated.
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Registered trials
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