Risk management in patients with severe acute pancreatitis.

Primary or secondary infection of necrotized areas by enteral bacteria is considered a primary cause of mortality in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Indeed, 20-30% of patients die during the course of the disease from multiple organ dysfunction after infection. This is why strategies such as antibiotic prophylaxis and early surgical intervention are appealing, but the controlled data that support these measures are insufficient. On the other hand, environmental risk factors (e.g. smoking, alcohol) and genetic predisposition have been identified; together, these led to SAP being considered a 'multifactorial' disease. However, this description does not help the intensivist to assess risk in the individual patient. A number of prognostic factors in SAP have been identified, and different scoring systems have been developed that include therapy-associated and patient-related factors. Nevertheless, at present no prognostic model is available that takes into account all of these predictors. Moreover, despite several attempts to create guideline-based strategies, SAP is still characterized by rapidly progressive multiple organ failure and high mortality, and both surgical and conservative therapies yield poor outcomes. This brief commentary highlights the most recent developments in risk management for patients with SAP.