Evidence map›Paper›PMID 15315961›Full record

ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2004

Vulnerability to winter mortality in elderly people in Britain: population based study.

Paul Wilkinson, Sam Pattenden, Ben Armstrong, Astrid Fletcher, R Sari Kovats, Punam Mangtani, Anthony J McMichael

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2004. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 76 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
76citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

76 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Short-Term Effect of Ambient Temperature and the Risk of Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2015
    Pooled it
  3. Seasonal variations in exacerbations and deaths in patients with COPD during the TIOSPIRInternational journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2018
    Trial
  4. Trial
  5. Interrupted Time Series Design and Analyses in Health Policy Assessment.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024
    Article
  6. Article
  7. The Mortality Effects of Winter Heating Prices.Economic journal (London, England) · 2024
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Developing a Cold-Related Mortality Database in Bangladesh.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Climatic influences on cardiovascular diseases.World journal of cardiology · 2022
    Review
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Weather patterns and all-cause mortality in England, UK.International journal of biometeorology · 2020
    Article
  20. Article

16 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Paul WilkinsonLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT. paul.wilkinson@lshtm.ac.uk
Sam Pattenden
Ben Armstrong
Astrid Fletcher
R Sari Kovats
Punam Mangtani
Anthony J McMichael

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo examine the determinants of vulnerability to winter mortality in elderly British people.

designPopulation based cohort study (119,389 person years of follow up).

setting106 general practices from the Medical Research Council trial of assessment and management of older people in Britain.

participantsPeople aged > or = 75 years.

main outcome measuresMortality (10,123 deaths) determined by follow up through the Office for National Statistics.

resultsMonth to month variation accounted for 17% of annual all cause mortality, but only 7.8% after adjustment for temperature. The overall winter:non-winter rate ratio was 1.31 (95% confidence interval 1.26 to 1.36). There was little evidence that this ratio varied by geographical region, age, or any of the personal, socioeconomic, or clinical factors examined, with two exceptions: after adjustment for all major covariates the winter:non-winter ratio in women compared with men was 1.11 (1.00 to 1.23), and those with a self reported history of respiratory illness had a winter:non-winter ratio of 1.20 (1.08 to 1.34) times that of people without a history of respiratory illness. There was no evidence that socioeconomic deprivation or self reported financial worries were predictive of winter death.

conclusionExcept for female sex and pre-existing respiratory illness, there was little evidence for vulnerability to winter death associated with factors thought to lead to vulnerability. The lack of socioeconomic gradient suggests that policies aimed at relief of fuel poverty may need to be supplemented by additional measures to tackle the burden of excess winter deaths in elderly people.

Indexed as

MortalitySeasonsAgedAged, 80 and overCohort StudiesFemaleHumansMalePoisson DistributionSocioeconomic FactorsUnited Kingdom

Identifiers

PMID15315961
PMCPMC517639

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.