ArticleJournal of epidemiology and community health2004
Compression, expansion, or dynamic equilibrium? The evolution of health expectancy in New Zealand.
Article in Journal of epidemiology and community health, 2004. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed.
- Statistical Methods in Aging Research: Improving Current Practices and Embracing Emerging Approaches.Annual review of statistics and its application · 2026Article
- Trends in Healthy Life Years Between 2005 and 2019 in 31 European Countries: The Compression or Expansion of Morbidity?International journal of public health · 2024Article
- Medical care needs for patients receiving home healthcare in Taiwan: Do gender and income matter?PloS one · 2021Article
- Self-Rated Healthy Life Expectancy Changes in Jiangxi Province of China by Gender and Urban-Rural Differences, 2013-2018.Frontiers in public health · 2020Article
- Financing elderly people's long-term care needs: Evidence from China.The International journal of health planning and management · 2018Article
- Multiple chronic condition profiles and survival among oldest-old male patients with hip fracture.Archives of gerontology and geriatrics · 2018Article
- Article
- Evaluating compression or expansion of morbidity in Canada: trends in life expectancy and health-adjusted life expectancy from 1994 to 2010.Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice · 2017Article
- The modelled impact of increases in physical activity: the effect of both increased survival and reduced incidence of disease.European journal of epidemiology · 2017Article
- Assessing morbidity compression in two cohorts from the Health and Retirement Study.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2016Article
- Expansion or compression of long-term care in Germany between 2001 and 2009? A small-area decomposition study based on administrative health data.Population health metrics · 2016Article
- Are we living longer but less healthy? Trends in mortality and morbidity in Catalonia (Spain), 1994-2011.European journal of ageing · 2015Article
- Studying disability trends in aging populations.Journal of cross-cultural gerontology · 2015Review
- Health, functioning, and disability in older adults--present status and future implications.Lancet (London, England) · 2015Article
- Optimal Retirement with Increasing Longevity.The Scandinavian journal of economics · 2014Article
- Midlife fitness and the development of chronic conditions in later life.Archives of internal medicine · 2012Article
- Dietary effects on sex-specific health dynamics of medfly: support for the dynamic equilibrium model of aging.Experimental gerontology · 2011Article
- Cohort differences in cognitive aging and terminal decline in the Seattle Longitudinal Study.Developmental psychology · 2011Article
- [Equal access to medical services over the lifespan].Der Nervenarzt · 2009Article
- On the Estimation of Disability-Free Life Expectancy: Sullivan' Method and Its Extension.Journal of the American Statistical Association · 2007Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
STUDY
objectiveTo evaluate the New Zealand evidence for three theories of population health change: compression of morbidity, expansion of morbidity, and dynamic equilibrium.
designUsing the Sullivan method, repeated cross sectional survey information on functional limitation prevalence was combined with population mortality data and census information on the utilisation of institutional care to produce health expectancy indices for 1981 and 1996.
settingThe adult population of New Zealand in 1981 and 1996.
participants6891 respondents to the 1981 social indicators survey; 8262 respondents to the 1996 household disability survey. MAIN
resultsAs a proportion of overall life expectancy at age 15 the expectation of non-institutionalised mobility limitations increased from 3.5% to 6% for men, and from 4.5% to 8% for women; the expectation of agility limitation increased from 3% to 7.5% for men and from 4.5% to 8.5% for women, and the expectation of self care limitations increased from 2.0% to 4.5% for men and from 3.0% to 6.0% for women. These changes were primarily attributable to increases in the expectation of moderate functional limitation.
conclusionThe dynamic equilibrium scenario provides the best fit to current New Zealand evidence on changes in population health. Although an aging population is likely to lead to an increase in demand for disability support services, the fiscal impact of this increase may be partially offset by a shift from major to moderate limitations, with a consequential reduction in the average levels of support required.
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Registered trials
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