Natural variability and the influence of concurrent control values on the detection and interpretation of low-dose or weak endocrine toxicities.

While defining the no effect level for the 5 alpha-reductase inhibitor finasteride in the Hershberger assay, we encountered an inverted-U low-dose trophic effect on the prostate gland of the rat. Two attempts to confirm this observation were unsuccessful, and we concluded that the positive effect initially observed was associated with normal biologic variability. During the same period we attempted, unsuccessfully, to repeat our own observation of weak uterotrophic activity in the rat for the sunscreen 3-(4-methylbenzylidene)camphor (4MBC). Further evaluation led us to conclude that 4MBC is uterotrophic only when the control uterine weights are at the low end of their normally encountered range. This led us to reevaluate our earlier mouse uterotrophic assay data for bisphenol A (BPA). Originally we had concluded that BPA gave irreproducible evidence of weak uterotrophic activity, but upon ordering the eight experiments we had conducted, according to decreasing control uterine weight, we confirmed reproducible weak uterotrophic activity for BPA when the control uteri were at the low end of their normal range. In this article, we describe these observations, together with a reanalysis of the data associated with several reported instances of weak or low-dose endocrine effects that have proven difficult to confirm in independent laboratories. These include the activity of BPA on the CF1 mouse prostate; the activities of BPA, octylphenol, and nonylphenol on the rat testis; and the effect of polycarbonate caging on control mouse uterine weight. In all of these cases, variability among controls provides a major obstacle to data interpretation and confirmation. Our recommendations on experimental design are also presented, with a view to ending the current impasse on the reality, or otherwise, of low-dose or weak endocrine toxicities.