ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2003
Predictive accuracy of the Framingham coronary risk score in British men: prospective cohort study.
Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2003. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 165 papers, 8 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
165 citing papers in PubMed, 8 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 526 citations in OpenAlex.
- Future promise, current clinical ambiguity: a systematic review of machine learning algorithm outputs predicting risk of cardiovascular disease.Open heart · 2026Pooled it
- Development of a high-performing, cost-effective and inclusive Afrocentric predictive model for stroke: a meta-analysis approach.BMC neurology · 2025Pooled it
- Systematic Review of Validity Assessments of Framingham Risk Score Results in Health Economic Modelling of Lipid-Modifying Therapies in Europe.PharmacoEconomics · 2018Pooled it
- Cardiovascular risk assessment scores for people with diabetes: a systematic review.Diabetologia · 2009Pooled it
- Cardiovascular risk after bariatric surgery for obesity.The American journal of cardiology · 2008Pooled it
- Accuracy and impact of risk assessment in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a systematic review.Heart (British Cardiac Society) · 2006Pooled it
- JBS 2: Joint British Societies' guidelines on prevention of cardiovascular disease in clinical practice.Heart (British Cardiac Society) · 2005Guideline
- Guidelines for management of hypertension: report of the fourth working party of the British Hypertension Society, 2004-BHS IV.Journal of human hypertension · 2004Guideline
- Analysis of short-term heart rate and diastolic period variability using a refined fuzzy entropy method.Biomedical engineering online · 2015Trial
- In-vivo-validation of a cardiovascular risk prediction tool: the arriba-pro study.BMC family practice · 2013Trial
- Trial
- Influence of pharmaceutical care on health outcomes in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus.British journal of clinical pharmacology · 2009Trial
- Absolute cardiovascular disease risk and shared decision making in primary care: a randomized controlled trial.Annals of family medicineTrial
- Artificial Intelligence in Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Mapping and evaluation of global and country-specific cardiovascular disease risk prediction models.Future cardiology · 2026Review
- External validation and recalibration of cardiovascular risk scores for prediction of 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease: a prospective, observational, population-based cohort analysis of adults in Mexico City.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Cardiovascular risk assessment enhanced by automated machine learning in a multi-phase study.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Navigating fairness aspects of clinical prediction models.BMC medicine · 2025Article
- External validation and recalibration of office- and laboratory-based cardiovascular risk scores for prediction of 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in 112,262 adults in Mexico City.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Evaluating the potential of phenotypic age to enhance cardiovascular risk prediction over chronological age in the UK Biobank.Scientific reports · 2025Article
105 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo establish the predictive accuracy of the Framingham risk score for coronary heart disease in a representative British population.
designProspective cohort study.
setting24 towns in the United Kingdom.
participants6643 British men aged 40-59 years and free from cardiovascular disease at entry into the British regional heart study.
main outcome measuresComparison of observed 10 year coronary heart disease mortality and event rates with predicted rates for each individual, using the relevant Framingham risk equation.
resultsOf 6643 men, 2.8% (95% confidence interval 2.4% to 3.2%) died from coronary heart disease compared with 4.1% predicted (relative overestimation 47%, P < 0.0001). A fatal or non-fatal coronary heart disease event occurred in 10.2% (9.5% to 10.9%) of the men compared with 16.0% predicted (relative overestimation 57%, P < 0.0001). These relative degrees of overestimation were similar at all levels of coronary heart disease risk, so that overestimation of absolute risk was greatest for those at highest risk. A simple adjustment provided an improved level of accuracy. In a "high risk score" approach, most cases occur in the low risk group. In this case, 84% of the deaths from coronary heart disease and non-fatal events occurred in the 93% of men classified at low risk (< 30% in 10 years) by the Framingham score.
conclusionGuidelines for the primary prevention of coronary heart disease advocate offering preventive measures to individuals at high risk. Currently recommended risk scoring methods derived from the Framingham study significantly overestimate the absolute coronary risk assigned to individuals in the United Kingdom.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.