Evidence map›Paper›PMID 13129988›Full record

ArticleJAMA2003

Incidence of childhood distal forearm fractures over 30 years: a population-based study.

Sundeep Khosla, L Joseph Melton, Mark B Dekutoski, Sara J Achenbach, Ann L Oberg, B Lawrence Riggs

Abstract read
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in JAMA, 2003. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 155 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
155citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
10.8field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

155 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 471 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Association of serum 25(OH)Vit-D levels with risk of pediatric fractures: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2021
    Pooled it
  2. The National Osteoporosis Foundation's position statement on peak bone mass development and lifestyle factors: a systematic review and implementation recommendations.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2016
    Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Study on outcome of fracture shaft of the humerus treated non-operatively with a functional brace.European journal of orthopaedic surgery & traumatology : orthopedie traumatologie · 2013
    Trial
  5. Review
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  11. The Crucial Role of Exercise in Promoting Adolescent Bone Health.Advances in experimental medicine and biology · 2026
    Review
  12. Development of the Muscular and Skeletal System During Adolescence.Advances in experimental medicine and biology · 2026
    Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Metaphyseal distal radius fractures in adolescents: is closed reduction and casting sufficient for most?European journal of orthopaedic surgery & traumatology : orthopedie traumatologie · 2025
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

95 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Sundeep KhoslaEndocrine Research Unit, Division of Endocrinology, Metabolism, and Nutrition, Department of Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, Rochester, Minn 55905, USA.
L Joseph Melton
Mark B Dekutoski
Sara J Achenbach
Ann L Oberg
B Lawrence Riggs
Mayo Clinic · US

Funding

SEX STEROIDS, GROWTH FACTORS, &BONE CELL FUNCTIONP01AG004875 · NIA · MAYO CLINIC ROCHESTER · PI KHOSLA, SUNDEEP · 1985 to 2019
$30.8M
ROCHESTER EPIDEMIOLOGY PROJECTR01AR030582 · NIAMS · MAYO CLINIC ROCHESTER · PI ROCCA, WALTER A · 1986 to 2009
$5.1M
NIAMS NIH HHS AR30582NIA NIH HHS AG04875
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

contextThe incidence of distal forearm fractures in children peaks around the time of the pubertal growth spurt, possibly because physical activity increases at the time of a transient deficit in cortical bone mass due to the increased calcium demand during maximal skeletal growth. Changes in physical activity or diet may therefore influence risk of forearm fracture.

objectiveTo determine whether there has been a change in the incidence of distal forearm fractures in children in recent years. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: Population-based study among Rochester, Minn, residents younger than 35 years with distal forearm fractures in 1969-1971, 1979-1981, 1989-1991, and 1999-2001.

main outcome measureEstimated incidence of distal forearm fractures in 4 time periods.

resultsComparably age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence rates per 100 000 increased from 263.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 231.1-295.4) in 1969-1971 to 322.3 (95% CI, 285.3-359.4) in 1979-1981 and to 399.8 (95% CI, 361.0-438.6) in 1989-1991 before leveling off at 372.9 (95% CI, 339.1-406.7) in 1999-2001. Age-adjusted incidence rates per 100 000 were 32% greater among male residents in 1999-2001 compared with 1969-1971 (409.4 [95% CI, 359.9-459.0] vs 309.4 [95% CI, 259.3-359.5]; P =.01) and 56% greater among female residents in the same time periods (334.3 [95% CI, 288.6-380.1] vs 214.6 [95% CI, 174.9-254.4]; P<.001). The peak incidence and greatest increase occurred between ages 11 and 14 years in boys and 8 and 11 years in girls.

conclusionsThere has been a statistically significant increase in the incidence of distal forearm fractures in children and adolescents, but whether this is due to changing patterns of physical activity, decreased bone acquisition due to poor calcium intake, or both is unclear at present. Given the large number of childhood fractures, however, studies are needed to define the cause(s) of this increase.

Indexed as

AdolescentChildFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMinnesotaPopulation SurveillanceRadius FracturesRisk FactorsUlna Fractures

Identifiers

PMID13129988
OpenAlexW2093089036

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.