ArticleBMC infectious diseases2003
Updated projections of future vCJD deaths in the UK.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2003. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 86 citations in OpenAlex.
- Vaporized Hydrogen Peroxide and Ozone Gas Synergistically Reduce Prion Infectivity on Stainless Steel Wire.International journal of molecular sciences · 2021Article
- Recent US Case of Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease-Global Implications.Emerging infectious diseases · 2015Article
- Towards an age-dependent transmission model of acquired and sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.PloS one · 2014Article
- Atomic structures suggest determinants of transmission barriers in mammalian prion disease.Biochemistry · 2011Article
- Article
- Crystallographic studies of prion protein (PrP) segments suggest how structural changes encoded by polymorphism at residue 129 modulate susceptibility to human prion disease.The Journal of biological chemistry · 2010Article
- Blood still kills: six strategies to further reduce allogeneic blood transfusion-related mortality.Transfusion medicine reviews · 2010Review
- Detection of PrPsc in blood from sheep infected with the scrapie and bovine spongiform encephalopathy agents.Journal of virology · 2009Article
- A clinical study of kuru patients with long incubation periods at the end of the epidemic in Papua New Guinea.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2008Article
- Prevalence of sheep infected with classical scrapie in Great Britain: integrating multiple sources of surveillance data for 2002.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2008Article
- Blood transfusion and spread of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.Emerging infectious diseases · 2007Article
- Factors determining the potential for onward transmission of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease via surgical instruments.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2006Article
- Human prion disease and relative risk associated with chronic wasting disease.Emerging infectious diseases · 2006Article
- Prion diseases: current understanding of epidemiology and pathogenesis, and therapeutic advances.CNS drugs · 2006Review
- Projections of the future course of the primary vCJD epidemic in the UK: inclusion of subclinical infection and the possibility of wider genetic susceptibility.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2005Article
- Genotype frequencies at codon 129 of the prion protein gene in Brazil: Implications in susceptibility to variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease compared to European and Asian populations.European journal of epidemiology · 2005Article
- Epidemiological evidence of higher susceptibility to vCJD in the young.BMC infectious diseases · 2004Article
- vCJD risk in the Republic of Ireland.BMC infectious diseases · 2003Article
- Communication and miscommunication of risk: understanding UK parents' attitudes to combined MMR vaccination.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2003Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundPast projections of the future course of the vCJD epidemic in the UK have shown considerable uncertainty, with wide confidence bounds. However, recent vCJD case data have indicated a decrease in the annual incidence of deaths over the past two years.
methodsA detailed survival model is fitted to the 121 vCJD deaths reported by the end of 2002 stratified by age and calendar time to obtain projections of future incidence. The model is additionally fitted to recent results from a survey of appendix tissues.
resultsOur results show a substantial decrease in the uncertainty of the future course of the primary epidemic in the susceptible genotype (MM-homozygous at codon 129 of the prion protein gene), with a best estimate of 40 future deaths (95% prediction interval 9-540) based on fitting to the vCJD case data alone. Additional fitting of the appendix data increases these estimates (best estimate 100, 95% prediction interval 10-2,600) but remains lower than previous projections.
conclusionsThe primary vCJD epidemic in the known susceptible genotype in the UK appears to be in decline.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.