ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2003
Factors determining the pattern of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) epidemic in the UK.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2003. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Interventions to reduce the risk of surgically transmitted Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease: a cost-effective modelling review.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) · 2020Pooled it
- Risk of transmission of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease by surgical procedures: systematic reviews and quality of evidence.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2017Pooled it
- Non-human primates in prion diseases.Cell and tissue research · 2023Review
- Drivers: A Biologically Contextualized, Cross-Inferential View of the Epidemiology of Neurodegenerative Disorders.Journal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD · 2016Article
- Host culling as an adaptive management tool for chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer: a modelling study.The Journal of applied ecology · 2009Article
- Human prion disease and relative risk associated with chronic wasting disease.Emerging infectious diseases · 2006Article
- Complex causal process diagrams for analyzing the health impacts of policy interventions.American journal of public health · 2006Article
- Resistance of neonatal mice to scrapie is associated with inefficient infection of the immature spleen.Journal of virology · 2006Article
- Trade related infections: farther, faster, quieter.Globalization and health · 2005Article
- Projections of the future course of the primary vCJD epidemic in the UK: inclusion of subclinical infection and the possibility of wider genetic susceptibility.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2005Article
- vCJD risk in the Republic of Ireland.BMC infectious diseases · 2003Article
- Assessment of the risk posed by bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle in Great Britain and the impact of potential changes to current control measures.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2003Article
- Updated projections of future vCJD deaths in the UK.BMC infectious diseases · 2003Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Following the emergence of a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) 6 years ago, and the gradual rise in clinical cases, there has been increased speculation regarding the overall magnitude of this epidemic in Great Britain. In this paper, we explore the epidemiological factors and uncertainties determining the scale of this epidemic in light of the most recent data on reported vCJD mortality. Our results demonstrate that, while the magnitude of the uncertainty has decreased dramatically since 1996, it is still not possible to predict with any degree of accuracy the final magnitude of this epidemic, with the 95% confidence interval for future cases being from 10 to 7000 deaths. However, short-term projections show that it is unlikely that a dramatic increase in case numbers will be observed in the next 2-5 years (95% confidence interval for 2 years: 10-80 cases, for 5 years: 10-200 cases). The results confirm significant age-dependent susceptibility/exposure to infection, with the likelihood profile demonstrating that those aged between 10 and 20 years are at highest risk of infection. We also demonstrate how projections based on onset data may be substantially biased, and explore the sensitivity of results to assumptions concerning the exposure to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and the incubation-period distribution.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.