ArticleBMC medical research methodology2003
Using observational data to estimate an upper bound on the reduction in cancer mortality due to periodic screening.
Article in BMC medical research methodology, 2003. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Quantifying Overdiagnosis for Multicancer Detection Tests: A Novel Method.Statistics in medicine · 2024Article
- Bayesian inference for the lead time in periodic cancer screening.Biometrics · 2007Article
- MLE and Bayesian inference of age-dependent sensitivity and transition probability in periodic screening.Biometrics · 2005Article
- Comparing breast cancer mortality rates before-and-after a change in availability of screening in different regions: extension of the paired availability design.BMC medical research methodology · 2004Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundBecause randomized cancer screening trials are very expensive, observational cancer screening studies can play an important role in the early phases of screening evaluation. Periodic screening evaluation (PSE) is a methodology for estimating the reduction in population cancer mortality from data on subjects who receive regularly scheduled screens. Although PSE does not require assumptions about natural history of cancer it requires other assumptions, particularly progressive detection - the assumption that once a cancer is detected by a screening test, it will always be detected by the screening test.
methodsWe formulate a simple version of PSE and show that it leads to an upper bound on screening efficacy if the progressive detection assumption does not hold (and any effect of birth cohort is minimal) To determine if the upper bound is reasonable, for three randomized screening trials, we compared PSE estimates based only on screened subjects with PSE estimates based on all subjects.
resultsIn the three randomized screening trials, PSE estimates based on screened subjects gave fairly close results to PSE estimates based on all subjects.
conclusionPSE has promise for obtaining an upper bound on the reduction in population cancer mortality rates based on observational screening data. If the upper bound estimate is found to be small and any birth cohort effects are likely minimal, then a definitive randomized trial would not be warranted.
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