ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2002
Dynamics and selection of many-strain pathogens.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2002. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 139 papers.
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Who cites it
139 citing papers in PubMed, 321 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Forecasting of influenza activity and associated hospital admission burden and estimating the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on 2019/20 winter season in Hong Kong.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- A speed limit on serial strain replacement from original antigenic sin.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
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- How immune dynamics shape multi-season epidemics: a continuous-discrete model in one dimensional antigenic space.Journal of mathematical biology · 2024Article
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- An immune memory-structured SIS epidemiological model for hyperdiverse pathogens.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Evolutionary stability of antigenically escaping viruses.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
79 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Strain structure is of fundamental importance in the underlying dynamics of a number of pathogens. However, previous models have been too complex to accommodate many strains. This paper offers a solution to this problem, in the form of a simple model that is capable of capturing the dynamics of a large number of antigenic types that interact via host cross-immunity. We derive the structure of the model, which can manage the complexity of many strains by using a status-based formulation, assuming polarized immunity and cross-immunity act to reduced transmission probability. We then apply the model to address basic questions in strain dynamics, focusing particularly on the interpandemic dynamics of influenza. This model shows that strains have a tendency to "cluster." For a long infectious period, relative to host lifetime, clusters may coexist. By contrast, a short infectious period leads to a single dominant cluster at any given time. We show how the speed of cluster replacement depends on the specificity of cross-immunity and on the underlying pathogen mutation rate.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.