SynthesisHeart (British Cardiac Society)2002
Prediction of mortality from coronary heart disease among diverse populations: is there a common predictive function?
Synthesis in Heart (British Cardiac Society), 2002. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Clinical assessment of patients with chest pain; a systematic review of predictive tools.BMC cardiovascular disorders · 2016Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Accuracy and impact of risk assessment in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a systematic review.Heart (British Cardiac Society) · 2006Pooled it
- Potential Similarity of Serum Cholesterol Multivariate Coefficients in the Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Across Populations: A Review From the Seven Countries Study.Reviews in cardiovascular medicine · 2026Review
- Risk estimation for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: considerations for appropriate risk prediction model selection.The Lancet. Global health · 2024Review
- Prediction for cardiovascular diseases based on laboratory data: An analysis of random forest model.Journal of clinical laboratory analysis · 2020Article
- Lifestyle behaviour and prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors - a pilot study comparing Kiribati and European seafarers.BMC public health · 2019Article
- Article
- Traditional Risk Factors Versus Biomarkers for Prediction of Secondary Events in Patients With Stable Coronary Heart Disease: From the Heart and Soul Study.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2015Article
- Cardiovascular risk assessment: a global perspective.Nature reviews. Cardiology · 2015 · on this mapReview
- Altered coronary artery calcium scores before bariatric surgery.SpringerPlus · 2014Article
- Subclinical cardiovascular disease assessment in persons with diabetes.Current cardiology reports · 2013Review
- Comparison of the Framingham and Reynolds Risk scores for global cardiovascular risk prediction in the multiethnic Women's Health Initiative.Circulation · 2012Article
- Statistical Relational Learning to Predict Primary Myocardial Infarction from Electronic Health Records.Proceedings of the ... Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference. Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference · 2012Article
- Article
- Evaluation of quantitative IFN-gamma response for risk stratification of active tuberculosis suspects.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2010Article
- Improving global vascular risk prediction with behavioral and anthropometric factors. The multiethnic NOMAS (Northern Manhattan Cohort Study).Journal of the American College of Cardiology · 2009Article
- The contribution of six polymorphisms to cardiovascular risk in a Dutch high-risk primary care population: the HIPPOCRATES project.Journal of human hypertension · 2009Article
- Coronary risks among seafarers aboard German-flagged ships.International archives of occupational and environmental health · 2008Article
- Novel markers of inflammation in atherosclerosis.Current atherosclerosis reports · 2008Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesTo examine the generalisability of multivariate risk functions from diverse populations in three contexts: ordering risk, magnitude of relative risks, and estimation of absolute risk.
designMeta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. PATIENTS: Participants from various epidemiological studies.
main outcome measureDeath from coronary heart disease (CHD).
resultsThe analysis included 105 420 men and 56 535 women 35-74 years of age and free of CHD at baseline from 16 observational studies with a total of 27 analytical groups. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to judge the ability of the multivariate risk function to order risk correctly. AUCs ranged from 0.60 to 0.80. The AUCs differed significantly between the studies (p < 0.01) but were very similar for different risk functions applied to the same population, indicating similar ability to rank risk for different models. The magnitudes of the relative risks associated with major risk factors (age, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol, smoking, and diabetes) varied significantly across studies (p < 0.05 for homogeneity). The prediction of absolute risk was not very accurate in most of the cases when a model derived from one study was applied to a different study.
conclusionsWhen considered qualitatively, the major risk factors are associated with CHD mortality in a diverse set of populations. However, when considered quantitatively, there was significant heterogeneity in all three aspects: ordering risk, magnitude of relative risks, and estimation of absolute risk.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.