ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2002
Booked inpatient admissions and hospital capacity: mathematical modelling study.
Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2002. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed.
- Demand-capacity modelling and COVID-19 disease: identifying themes for future NHS planning.Anaesthesia · 2020Article
- Symbiotic simulation for the operational management of inpatient beds: model development and validation using Δ-method.Health care management science · 2020Article
- Multi-objective admission planning problem: a two-stage stochastic approach.Health care management science · 2020Article
- Influence of Annual Meetings of the American Society of Anesthesiologists and of Large National Surgical Societies on Caseloads of Major Therapeutic Procedures.Journal of medical systems · 2018Observational
- A modelling tool for capacity planning in acute and community stroke services.BMC health services research · 2016Article
- Operational research as implementation science: definitions, challenges and research priorities.Implementation science : IS · 2016Article
- Costs and Utilization of Operating Rooms in a Public Hospital in Trinidad, West Indies.The Permanente journal · 2015Observational
- Decision support for hospital bed management using adaptable individual length of stay estimations and shared resources.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2013Article
- A technical note concerning emergency bed demand.Health care management science · 2011Article
- Detecting road maps for capacity utilization decisions by Clustering Analysis and CHAID Decision Trees.Journal of medical systems · 2010Article
- Managing capacity and demand across the patient journey.Clinical medicine (London, England) · 2010Review
- Process modeling of ICU patient flow: effect of daily load leveling of elective surgeries on ICU diversion.Journal of medical systems · 2009Article
- Restructuring routine elective services to reduce overall capacity requirements within a local health economy.Health care management science · 2008Article
- Evaluation of booking systems for elective surgery using simulation experiments.Healthcare policy = Politiques de sante · 2008Article
- Closing emergency operating rooms improves efficiency.Journal of medical systems · 2007Article
- A norm utilisation for scarce hospital resources: evidence from operating rooms in a Dutch university hospital.Journal of medical systems · 2007Article
- A three-phase approach for operating theatre schedules.Health care management science · 2007Article
- Modeling the emergency cardiac in-patient flow: an application of queuing theory.Health care management science · 2007Article
- [Allocating and scheduling operating room time].Der Chirurg; Zeitschrift fur alle Gebiete der operativen Medizen · 2005Article
- Can the impact of bed closure in intensive care units be reliably monitored?Intensive care medicine · 2004Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesTo investigate the variability of patients' length of stay in intensive care after cardiac surgery. To investigate potential interactions between such variability, booked admissions, and capacity requirements.
designMathematical modelling study using routinely collected data.
settingA cardiac surgery department. SOURCE OF DATA: Hospital records of 7014 people entering intensive care after cardiac surgery.
main outcome measuresLength of stay in intensive care; capacity requirements of an intensive care unit for a hypothetical booked admission system.
resultsAlthough the vast majority of patients (89.5%) had a length of stay in intensive care of < or = 48 hours, there was considerable overall variability and the distribution of stays has a lengthy tail. A mathematical model of the operation of a hypothetical booking system indicates that such variability has a considerable impact on intensive care capacity requirements, indicating that a high degree of reserve capacity is required to avoid high rates of operation cancellation because of unavailability of suitable postoperative care.
conclusionDespite the considerable enthusiasm for booked admissions systems, queuing theory suggests that caution is required when considering such systems for inpatient admissions. Such systems may well result in frequent operational difficulties if there is a high degree of variability in length of stay and where reserve capacity is limited. Both of these are common in the NHS.
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