SynthesisBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2001
A score for predicting risk of death from cardiovascular disease in adults with raised blood pressure, based on individual patient data from randomised controlled trials.
Synthesis in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2001. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 71 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
71 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 270 citations in OpenAlex.
- Estimating individualized treatment effects using an individual participant data meta-analysis.BMC medical research methodology · 2024Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Guideline
- Evaluation of the dose response with valsartan and valsartan/hydrochlorothiazide in patients with essential hypertension.Journal of clinical hypertension (Greenwich, Conn.) · 2007Pooled it
- Framingham-based tools to calculate the global risk of coronary heart disease: a systematic review of tools for clinicians.Journal of general internal medicine · 2003Pooled it
- Trial
- Effect of CPAP on Cardiac Function in Minimally Symptomatic Patients with OSA: Results from a Subset of the MOSAIC Randomized Trial.Journal of clinical sleep medicine : JCSM : official publication of the American Academy of Sleep Medicine · 2015Trial
- Antihypertensive efficacy and safety of manidipine versus amlodipine in elderly subjects with isolated systolic hypertension: MAISH study.Clinical drug investigation · 2007Trial
- Risk score for predicting death, myocardial infarction, and stroke in patients with stable angina, based on a large randomised trial cohort of patients.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2005Trial
- A randomized trial of mail vs. telephone invitation to a community-based cardiovascular health awareness program for older family practice patients [ISRCTN61739603].BMC family practice · 2005Trial
- Article
- Digital Representation of Patients as Medical Digital Twins: Data-Centric Viewpoint.JMIR medical informatics · 2025Article
- Distinct benefit frames generate divergent effects of time scarcity mindset on prosocial behavior.Frontiers in psychology · 2025Article
- Article
- Cost-Effectiveness of Pharmacist Prescribing for Managing Hypertension in the United States.JAMA network open · 2023Article
- Disease burden among Ukrainians forcibly displaced by the 2022 Russian invasion.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Extremely Low Activity of Serum Alanine Aminotransferase Is Associated with Long-Term Overall-Cause Mortality in the Elderly Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention after Acute Coronary Syndrome.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2023Article
- Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting all-cause mortality in American adult hypertensive populations.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2023Article
- Score-based prediction model for severe vitamin D deficiency in patients with critical illness: development and validation.Critical care (London, England) · 2022Article
- Development, validation, and visualization of a web-based nomogram to predict 5-year mortality risk in older adults with hypertension.BMC geriatrics · 2022Article
11 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo create a risk score for death from cardiovascular disease that can be easily used.
designData from eight randomised controlled trials of antihypertensive treatment.
settingEurope and North America.
participants47 088 men and women from trials that had differing age ranges and differing eligibility criteria for blood pressure. MAIN OTUCOME MEASURE: 1639 deaths from cardiovascular causes during a mean 5.2 years of follow up.
resultsBaseline factors were related to risk of death from cardiovascular disease using a multivariate Cox model, adjusting for trial and treatment group (active versus control). A risk score was developed from 11 factors: age, sex, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol concentration, height, serum creatinine concentration, cigarette smoking, diabetes, left ventricular hypertrophy, history of stroke, and history of myocardial infarction. The risk score is an integer, with points added for each factor according to its association with risk. Smoking contributed more in women and in younger age groups. In women total cholesterol concentration mattered less than in men, whereas diabetes had more of an effect. Antihypertensive treatment reduced the score. The five year risk of death from cardiovascular disease for scores of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 was 0.1%, 0.3%, 0.8%, 2.3%, 6.1%, and 15.6%, respectively. Age and sex distributions of the score from the two UK trials enabled individual risk assessment to be age and sex specific. Risk prediction models are also presented for fatal coronary heart disease, fatal stroke, and all cause mortality.
conclusionThe risk score is an objective aid to assessing an individual's risk of cardiovascular disease, including stroke and coronary heart disease. It is useful for physicians when determining an individual's need for antihypertensive treatment and other management strategies for cardiovascular risk.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.